Willy Adames presents one of the strongest under trends in baseball, hitting the under in 44 of 69 games (63.8% rate). His 1.59 average falls 0.4 bases short of typical 2.02 lines, generating +21.7% ROI on unders. This is a clear LEAN UNDER opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a systematic overvaluation of Adames's total bases production by oddsmakers. His 1.59 average consistently falls short of the 2.02 line he typically faces, creating a sustainable edge that has persisted across 69 games spanning over a year. This isn't a short-term cold streak—it's a fundamental disconnect between market perception and reality. The 14-game under streak demonstrates how pronounced this pattern can become, while even his longest over streak of just 5 games shows limited upside volatility. The -30.8% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating Adames's extra-base hit frequency and multi-hit potential. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency across different matchups and situations, suggesting the issue lies with Adames's profile rather than specific circumstances. His current 2-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and without meaningful split data showing dramatically different performance in specific spots, the under remains the statistically superior play across all conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 63.8% under rate and +21.7% ROI create a clear statistical edge that has proven sustainable across a significant sample. Adames consistently underperforms the market's expectations for his total bases production. The ideal spot is when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 1.59 average and the number. The main risk is a hot streak similar to his 5-game over run, but the overwhelming trend favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willy Adames's Total Bases prop record all games?
Adames has hit the under in 44 of 69 total bases props (63.8% rate) with an overall record of 25-44-0. His under performance has generated a +21.7% ROI while overs show -30.8% ROI, demonstrating clear market inefficiency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willy Adames Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Adames's total bases props. His 1.59 average consistently falls short of typical 2.02 lines, creating a 63.8% under rate with +21.7% ROI. This represents one of baseball's most reliable under trends.
What's Willy Adames's average Total Bases all games?
Adames averages 1.59 total bases per game compared to his typical line of 2.02, creating a -0.4 differential. This 0.43-base gap between performance and market expectations drives the strong under trend across all situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Adames total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the gap with his 1.59 average. The trend works consistently across all game situations, making any standard line a potential under opportunity.