Willy Adames presents one of baseball's most lopsided home run prop trends, going under in 84.3% of games (59-11 record) with a devastating -0.34 differential versus his typical line. The Brewers shortstop averages just 0.17 homers per game against a 0.51 line, creating consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Willy Adames's home run props reveal a fundamental market inefficiency rooted in perception versus production. Despite his reputation as a power-hitting shortstop, Adames consistently falls short of inflated expectations, averaging 0.17 home runs per game against lines typically set around 0.51. This massive -0.34 differential stems from several factors: his swing-and-miss tendencies that limit consistent contact, Milwaukee's pitcher-friendly American Family Field that suppresses power numbers, and a market that overvalues his occasional power surges. The 18-game under streak demonstrates this isn't random variance but systematic overvaluation. Adames's 15.7% over rate across 70 games represents extreme consistency, suggesting books haven't adequately adjusted to his actual production patterns. The +60.9% ROI on unders reflects sharp money recognizing this disconnect. While regression toward league norms seems inevitable, Adames's underlying metrics show limited barrel rate and inconsistent launch angles that support continued under performance. The current 7-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern rather than indicating imminent positive regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Willy Adames's home run props offer exceptional under value with an 84.3% hit rate and +60.9% ROI. The massive -0.34 differential between his 0.17 average and typical 0.51 line creates consistent opportunities. Target standard game conditions where his swing-and-miss profile and Milwaukee's pitcher-friendly park maximize under potential. Primary risk is books finally adjusting lines downward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willy Adames's Home Runs prop record all games?
Willy Adames has gone 11-59-0 on home run overs across 70 games, hitting the over in just 15.7% of contests. This 84.3% under rate represents one of baseball's most consistent prop trends with exceptional sample size reliability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willy Adames Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Willy Adames home run props with high confidence. His 0.17 average versus 0.51 typical line creates a -0.34 edge, supported by 84.3% under rate and +60.9% ROI over 70 games.
What's Willy Adames's average Home Runs all games?
Willy Adames averages 0.17 home runs per game compared to his typical 0.51 line, creating a massive -0.34 differential. This gap represents systematic market overvaluation of his power production throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Willy Adames home run unders during standard game conditions at American Family Field or neutral parks. Avoid games with extreme wind conditions favoring hitters, but his consistent under performance makes most situations favorable for under bets.