Willson Contreras has been a consistent under performer on Total Bases props when St. Louis is favored, hitting just 36.4% of overs across 11 games. Despite averaging 1.91 total bases against a typical 1.5 line, the under has delivered a strong 21.5% ROI while overs have lost 30.6%.
Expert Analysis
The Cardinals catcher's struggles as a favorite reveal a fascinating market inefficiency. Contreras averages 1.91 total bases in these spots, seemingly supporting over bets on the standard 1.5 line, yet unders have cashed 63.6% of the time with excellent returns. This disconnect suggests the market overvalues Contreras in favorable game scripts, possibly expecting him to capitalize on run-scoring opportunities that don't materialize as expected. When St. Louis is favored, opposing pitchers often bear down harder, and the Cardinals may take more conservative approaches with leads, limiting Contreras's aggressive swings. The recent streak of two consecutive overs after five straight unders indicates potential regression, but the underlying fundamentals remain concerning for over bettors. Contreras's position as catcher also means he faces unique physical demands that could impact performance in games where St. Louis controls the pace. The sample size of 11 games provides meaningful data without being overwhelming, and the consistency of under results across different opponents and situations strengthens the trend's reliability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 21.5% ROI on unders combined with a 63.6% hit rate creates compelling value despite Contreras averaging above the typical line. The market appears to overadjust for favorable matchups, creating consistent under opportunities. Target this trend when St. Louis is a moderate favorite against quality pitching, but avoid when Contreras faces particularly weak opponents where his power could break through.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Total Bases prop record as favorite?
Willson Contreras has gone 4-7 on Total Bases overs when St. Louis is favored, hitting just 36.4% of over bets. The under has been profitable with a 21.5% ROI across 11 games, while overs have lost bettors 30.6% of their investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Total Bases as favorite?
Bet under on Willson Contreras Total Bases when the Cardinals are favored. The trend shows 63.6% under success with strong 21.5% returns, indicating the market consistently overvalues his production in favorable matchups despite his solid 1.91 average.
What's Willson Contreras's average Total Bases as favorite?
Willson Contreras averages 1.91 total bases when St. Louis is favored, which is 0.4 bases above the typical 1.5 line. However, this seemingly positive differential has been misleading, as unders have still hit 63.6% of the time with excellent profitability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Willson Contreras Total Bases unders when St. Louis is a moderate favorite against quality starting pitching. Avoid when the Cardinals face particularly weak opponents or when Contreras has extended rest, as these conditions could break the favorable under trend.