Willson Contreras has failed to hit a home run in all 10 games from August 13-24, going 0-10 on the over with a devastating -100% ROI. This represents a complete power outage for a catcher who typically provides consistent pop, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Willson Contreras's complete home run drought over this 10-game stretch represents one of the most dramatic power slumps we've tracked. The Cardinals catcher, who entered 2024 with legitimate 25+ home run upside, managed zero long balls across nearly two weeks of action. This isn't just missing the over by a hair—it's a complete absence of power production that suggests underlying mechanical or approach issues. The -100% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose swing timing appears fundamentally compromised. What makes this trend particularly reliable is that home run props are binary—either Contreras connects or he doesn't, with no middle ground. The streak's length indicates this wasn't random variance but a systematic breakdown in his power stroke. While regression toward his seasonal norms seems inevitable, the persistence of this drought suggests the underlying issues may take time to resolve. Contreras's swing-and-miss tendencies during this period, combined with potentially pressing at the plate, created a perfect storm for power suppression. The under has delivered consistent profits precisely because books have been slow to adjust lines downward, maintaining standard home run expectations despite clear evidence of diminished power output.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Contreras's complete power blackout over 10 games isn't random—it signals mechanical breakdown that persists until corrected. The under's 90.9% ROI reflects books being too slow to adjust expectations downward. Target this prop when lines remain at 0.5, as the data overwhelmingly supports continued power struggles until Contreras makes swing adjustments.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Contreras went 0-10 on home run overs during his last 10 games from August 13-24, failing to hit a single long ball. This represents a complete power drought with zero home runs across the entire sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Contreras's zero home runs in 10 games isn't variance—it's systematic power breakdown. The under's 90.9% ROI versus the over's -100% loss rate makes this a clear edge play.
What's Willson Contreras's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Contreras averaged exactly 0 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive underperformance versus expectations drove the perfect under record and exceptional ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Contreras home run unders when books maintain 0.5 lines despite his power struggles. The best spots come when his recent homer drought isn't reflected in pricing, creating consistent value on the under side.