Willson Contreras has gone under his home run prop in 77% of away games over a 39-game sample, averaging just 0.23 homers compared to the typical 0.5 line. Currently riding a seven-game under streak on the road, this presents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Willson Contreras struggling to generate power away from Busch Stadium. His 0.23 home run average in road games sits 54% below the standard 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders. This isn't a small sample fluke—39 games provides meaningful data showing Contreras faces genuine challenges hitting for power on the road. Road environments typically suppress offensive numbers through unfamiliar backdrops, different wind patterns, and varying ballpark dimensions that can affect timing and approach. Contreras appears particularly susceptible to these factors, as evidenced by his current seven-game under streak. The -55.9% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this road power deficit, while the +46.9% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability. With only 23.1% of his away games going over, we're looking at a pattern that transcends normal variance. The lack of recent hot streaks (longest over streak just two games) suggests this isn't about timing but rather a fundamental issue with Contreras generating extra-base power in hostile environments. This trend shows remarkable persistence without obvious signs of regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Contreras's 77% under rate in away games represents a clear market inefficiency, particularly given his current seven-game road under streak. The ideal spot is any away game where the line sits at 0.5, as his 0.23 average provides substantial cushion. The main risk is small sample variance and potential lineup protection changes that could create better hitting conditions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Home Runs prop record away games?
Contreras has gone 9-30-0 on home run overs in away games, hitting just 23.1% of overs across a 39-game sample. This represents one of the more lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders cashing at a 77% clip on the road.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Home Runs away games?
Bet the under on Contreras home run props in away games. His 0.23 road average sits well below typical 0.5 lines, and he's currently on a seven-game under streak with strong historical precedent supporting continued struggles.
What's Willson Contreras's average Home Runs away games?
Contreras averages 0.23 home runs in away games compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.27 differential. This 54% gap below market expectations has proven consistent across 39 road contests, providing reliable under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target any away game where Contreras faces a 0.5 home run line. His road power deficit is most pronounced against quality pitching staffs and in pitcher-friendly ballparks, making those spots ideal for maximizing under value.