William Contreras has been a total bases disaster, posting a perfect 0-10 under record with an average of just 0.4 total bases against a 3.0 line. This represents a catastrophic -2.6 differential and -100% ROI on overs. The under is the clear play.
Expert Analysis
William Contreras's total bases collapse over his last 10 games represents one of the most dramatic offensive declines we've tracked this season. Averaging just 0.4 total bases against a 3.0 line creates a massive -2.6 differential that suggests either serious injury concerns or a complete mechanical breakdown at the plate. The perfect 0-10 under record isn't just bad luck—it indicates a fundamental shift in Contreras's offensive profile during this stretch. As a catcher, the physical demands of his position could be contributing to late-season fatigue, particularly affecting his bat speed and timing. The consistency of this underperformance across 10 games eliminates variance as an explanation. While regression toward career norms is inevitable long-term, the severity of this downturn suggests underlying issues that won't resolve overnight. The 90.9% ROI on unders demonstrates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Contreras's current offensive state. Without specific injury reports or mechanical adjustments being addressed, this trend appears sustainable in the short term. The risk lies in betting into a potential dead-cat bounce, but the data overwhelmingly supports continued struggles.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Contreras's 0.4 total bases average creates an enormous 2.6-base cushion below the typical 3.0 line, making this one of the strongest under plays available. The perfect 0-10 record suggests systematic issues rather than variance. Main risk is regression, but the severity and consistency of this decline indicates continued struggles are more likely than immediate recovery.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Contreras has gone 0-10 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, averaging just 0.4 total bases against typical 3.0 lines. This perfect under record represents a -100% ROI on overs and +90.9% on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Contreras's 0.4 average creates a massive 2.6-base cushion below standard lines, and the perfect 0-10 under record indicates systematic offensive issues rather than temporary variance.
What's William Contreras's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Contreras is averaging 0.4 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.0 line, creating a massive -2.6 differential. This represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations we've tracked.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when Contreras faces quality pitching or in day games following night games behind the plate. His current 0.4 average provides value against any line above 1.5, with optimal spots coming against strikeout pitchers.