William Contreras shows a clear under bias in away games with just 47.1% overs across 34 games. Despite averaging 2.18 total bases against a typical 1.97 line, the -10.2% ROI on overs suggests consistent line inflation. The under presents modest value with +1.1% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about William Contreras and road total bases props. While his 2.18 average appears strong against the standard 1.97 line, the 47.1% over rate reveals books are pricing in his road power effectively. The -10.2% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation, likely driven by Contreras's reputation as Milwaukee's primary offensive catcher. Road environments typically suppress offensive numbers through unfamiliar ballparks, different sight lines, and hostile crowds - factors that seem to impact Contreras more than oddsmakers initially account for. The modest +1.1% under ROI suggests this isn't a massive edge, but rather a consistent lean worth exploiting. His current four-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though regression remains possible given his underlying talent. The key insight is that books appear to price Contreras's total bases props based on his overall offensive profile rather than adjusting adequately for road-specific performance degradation. This creates a systematic pricing inefficiency favoring under bettors who recognize the environmental impact on his extra-base hit production away from Milwaukee's hitter-friendly American Family Field.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The data supports a systematic under bias in William Contreras total bases props on the road, driven by books overvaluing his offensive profile in away environments. Target this when lines sit at 1.9 or higher, especially against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The main risk is regression to his talent level, but the consistent pattern suggests sustainable value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Total Bases prop record away games?
William Contreras has gone 16-18 on total bases overs in away games across 34 contests, hitting just 47.1% of overs. This represents a clear under trend with overs producing a -10.2% ROI while unders show +1.1% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Total Bases away games?
Bet under on William Contreras total bases in away games. The 47.1% over rate and negative ROI on overs indicates consistent line overvaluation. Target unders when the line is 1.9 or higher for optimal value.
What's William Contreras's average Total Bases away games?
William Contreras averages 2.18 total bases in away games compared to typical lines around 1.97. While this seems favorable for overs, the actual results show books price this differential effectively, creating systematic under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target William Contreras total bases unders in road games against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The edge is strongest when lines sit at 1.9 or higher, as books consistently overvalue his road offensive output.