William Contreras's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 38.6% overs across 70 games. His 1.89 average sits 0.25 bases below the typical 2.14 line, generating +17.3% ROI on unders. The current 11-game under streak reinforces this systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
William Contreras has consistently fallen short of total bases expectations throughout this extensive sample, and the underlying mechanics suggest this isn't random variance. His 1.89 average against a 2.14 line represents meaningful value, particularly given the catcher position's inherent volatility constraints. Catchers typically see fewer stolen base opportunities and face more defensive-minded at-bats, naturally capping their total bases ceiling. The 11-game under streak indicates books haven't fully adjusted to Contreras's actual production level versus their pricing models. With 27 overs against 43 unders, we're seeing systematic mispricing rather than temporary cold streaks. The -26.4% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently inflated these lines have been. Contreras's profile as a contact-oriented catcher who doesn't rely heavily on extra-base power aligns with this under trend. The sample size provides strong statistical confidence, and without split data showing dramatically different performance in specific situations, this appears to be his baseline production level. Regression concerns are minimal given the consistency across different game contexts and the fundamental nature of his playing style and position.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17.3% ROI on unders combined with Contreras's consistent production below market expectations creates sustainable value. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.89 average provides natural cushion. The main risk is positive regression from the extreme 11-game under streak, but his underlying metrics support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Total Bases prop record all games?
William Contreras has gone under his total bases prop in 43 of 70 games (61.4%) with an overall record of 27-43-0. His under bets have generated a positive 17.3% ROI while overs have lost -26.4%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Total Bases all games?
Bet under on William Contreras's total bases props. His 1.89 average sits well below typical 2.14 lines, and the 61.4% under rate with positive ROI makes this a profitable long-term strategy.
What's William Contreras's average Total Bases all games?
William Contreras averages 1.89 total bases per game across this 70-game sample. This sits 0.25 bases below the typical 2.14 line, creating consistent value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target William Contreras total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher. His consistent production below market expectations makes these props profitable regardless of opponent, with the current 11-game under streak reinforcing the edge.