William Contreras presents one of baseball's most reliable under opportunities in away home run props, going under in 28 of 33 road games (84.8% success rate). His 0.15 average sits 0.3 homers below typical lines, generating a massive 62.0% ROI on unders. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Contreras's road struggles with power production. His 15.2% over rate away from home represents extreme underperformance that extends beyond normal variance. The 0.15 home run average in road games creates substantial value when books consistently set lines around 0.5, suggesting either market inefficiency or failure to properly weight his venue-specific struggles. The 12-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to clear modest power expectations on the road. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the persistence across different opposing pitching staffs and ballparks, indicating this isn't just bad luck but a fundamental issue with Contreras's power production away from Milwaukee's familiar confines. The -71.1% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about backing his power in road spots. While catchers often struggle with power consistency due to the physical demands of their position, Contreras's road splits suggest environmental factors beyond typical positional fatigue. The sample size of 33 games provides statistical significance, and the trend's consistency across multiple months indicates this isn't a short-term aberration but a exploitable pattern that books haven't fully adjusted to pricing.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Contreras's road home run props offer exceptional value with an 84.8% under success rate and 62.0% ROI. The ideal conditions are any road game where the line sits at 0.5, which creates maximum value given his 0.15 average. The main risk is regression to league norms, but the sample size and consistency suggest this is a genuine skill-based edge rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Home Runs prop record away games?
William Contreras has gone 5-28-0 over/under on home run props in away games, hitting the under in 84.8% of road contests. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with only 5 overs in 33 road games spanning over a year.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Home Runs away games?
Bet the under on William Contreras home run props in away games. His 84.8% under rate and 62.0% ROI on unders make this one of the strongest prop betting edges available, especially when lines are set at 0.5.
What's William Contreras's average Home Runs away games?
William Contreras averages 0.15 home runs per game in away contests, sitting 0.35 homers below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential creates consistent value for under bettors across multiple road situations and opposing pitching staffs.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet William Contreras home run unders is any road game where the line is 0.5 or higher. His consistent struggles away from home make every road start a potential value opportunity, regardless of opposing pitcher or ballpark factors.