William Contreras presents a compelling under opportunity with a 45.8% over rate across 72 games, averaging 1.11 hits against a 1.22 line. Currently riding a nine-game under streak with consistent underperformance, this creates a strong lean under with sustainable value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about William Contreras and his hits production. With only 33 overs in 72 games, he's consistently falling short of market expectations by 0.1 hits per game on average. This isn't marginal underperformance—it's systematic. The current nine-game under streak represents his longest cold spell, but it's built on a foundation of season-long struggles to reach inflated lines. Contreras has shown flashes with a seven-game over streak earlier in the sample, proving he can get hot, but those stretches have been the exception rather than the rule. The -12.5% ROI on overs versus +3.4% on unders demonstrates that books have been slow to adjust to his actual production level. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—nearly 55% of his games have gone under, suggesting this isn't just bad luck but a reflection of his true talent level versus market perception. The lack of significant splits data actually strengthens the case, as it indicates his underperformance isn't situational but persistent across all contexts. Contreras appears to be a player whose reputation and potential exceed his current hitting consistency, creating ongoing value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 54.2% under rate combined with negative average differential creates sustainable value, especially during this nine-game cold streak. The ideal spot is when lines remain at 1.5+ hits, capitalizing on books' slow adjustment to his actual production. Main risk is regression to his seven-game over streak capability, but the season-long pattern suggests continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Hits prop record all games?
William Contreras has gone 33-39 over/under on his hits props across 72 games, translating to a 45.8% over rate. He's currently on a nine-game under streak, his longest of the season, while his previous best over streak reached seven games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Hits all games?
Bet under on William Contreras hits props. His 54.2% under rate and -0.1 average differential show consistent underperformance versus market lines. The current nine-game under streak aligns with season-long trends, creating sustainable value on the under side with positive ROI.
What's William Contreras's average Hits all games?
William Contreras averages 1.11 hits per game against a typical line of 1.22, creating a negative 0.1 differential. This consistent gap between actual production and market expectations has generated a 54.2% under rate across his 72-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target William Contreras under bets when lines are set at 1.5+ hits, particularly during cold streaks like his current nine-game under run. His consistent underperformance across all situations means there's no need to wait for specific matchups or contexts.