Will Smith's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with a dismal 29.0% over rate across 69 games. His 1.78 average falls 0.6 bases short of the typical 2.4 line, generating a robust +35.6% ROI on unders while overs have hemorrhaged -44.7%.
Expert Analysis
Will Smith's total bases performance reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers who consistently set lines around 2.4 bases despite his 1.78 average output. This 0.6-base differential isn't marginal variance—it's a structural edge rooted in Smith's role and skill set. As a defensive-first catcher, Smith prioritizes contact and situational hitting over power, leading to frequent singles and walks that cap his base accumulation. The 11-game under streak demonstrates this isn't random fluctuation but reflects his actual ceiling in most matchups. His 29.0% over rate across 69 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +35.6% under ROI confirms this edge translates to profit. The concerning -44.7% over ROI suggests books haven't adequately adjusted to Smith's true baseline performance. Without meaningful splits data, we can't identify specific vulnerable spots, but the consistency of his underperformance suggests this trend persists across various game situations. The key risk lies in potential lineup changes or increased opportunities against weaker pitching, but Smith's fundamental approach and limited power upside make dramatic spikes unlikely.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's 1.78 average versus typical 2.4 lines creates a sustainable 0.6-base edge that has produced +35.6% ROI over 69 games. Target unders when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, as his contact-first approach and limited power ceiling make multi-base games the exception rather than the rule. The primary risk involves potential hot streaks, but his 11-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in falling short of inflated expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Smith's Total Bases prop record all games?
Will Smith has gone over his total bases prop in just 20 of 69 games (29.0% rate) while going under 49 times. His 1.78 average falls well short of typical 2.4 lines, creating a -0.6 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Smith Total Bases all games?
Bet UNDER on Will Smith's total bases props with high confidence. His 29.0% over rate and +35.6% under ROI across 69 games creates a sustainable edge, especially when lines reach 2.5 or higher against his 1.78 average output.
What's Will Smith's average Total Bases all games?
Will Smith averages 1.78 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 2.4 bases. This -0.6 differential represents a significant gap that has consistently favored under bettors, generating +35.6% ROI while overs have lost -44.7%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Smith total bases unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 1.78 average and the posted number. His contact-first approach and limited power make these elevated lines particularly vulnerable to his consistent underperformance.