Will Smith's hits prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity with just 26.8% overs across 41 games. His 0.95 average sits 0.6 hits below the typical 1.55 line, generating +39.7% ROI for under bettors while over backers hemorrhaged -48.8%.
Expert Analysis
Smith's road struggles stem from a perfect storm of environmental and psychological factors that create consistent value on the under. His 0.95 hits average away from Dodger Stadium reveals a player who simply doesn't adjust well to foreign environments, whether facing unfamiliar pitching staffs or dealing with different ballpark dimensions and crowd energy. The 73.2% under rate isn't a small sample fluke—it's a sustained pattern across a full season that suggests legitimate skill-based limitations rather than random variance. Smith's current two-game under streak pales compared to his season-long eight-game under run, highlighting how deeply ingrained this road weakness has become. The -0.6 differential between his performance and typical lines indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his away struggles, creating ongoing value. Most telling is the massive ROI gap: under bettors profited nearly 40% while over backers lost nearly half their investment. This isn't regression territory—it's a fundamental mismatch between Smith's road capabilities and market expectations that should persist as long as the underlying factors remain unchanged.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Smith's 73.2% under rate in away games reflects genuine road struggles rather than variance, creating consistent line value. The -0.6 average differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limitations. Target this when the line sits at 1.5 hits or higher, as Smith rarely exceeds that threshold on the road. Main risk is potential lineup changes or favorable matchups against struggling road pitching staffs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Will Smith props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Smith's Hits prop record away games?
Will Smith went 11-30-0 on his hits prop in away games during 2024, hitting the over just 26.8% of the time. His 0.95 average was consistently below the typical 1.55 line, creating a -0.6 differential that favored under bettors throughout the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Smith Hits away games?
Bet the under on Will Smith's hits in away games. His 73.2% under rate and +39.7% ROI for under bettors across 41 games shows consistent value. Target lines at 1.5 hits or higher for maximum edge against his 0.95 road average.
What's Will Smith's average Hits away games?
Will Smith averaged 0.95 hits per game in away contests during 2024, sitting 0.6 hits below the typical 1.55 line. This substantial gap between performance and market expectations created consistent value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Smith's hits under when he's facing quality road pitching staffs or playing in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His struggles are most pronounced against unfamiliar opponents, making divisional away games potentially less reliable than interleague or cross-country road trips.