Will Benson's home Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 22.2% overs across 27 games. His 1.04 average falls 0.7 bases short of typical lines, generating +48.5% ROI on unders. Currently riding an 8-game under streak at home.
Expert Analysis
Benson's home struggles stem from a combination of approach issues and ballpark factors that consistently suppress his offensive output. The 1.04 average against 1.76 lines represents a massive 41% gap that suggests either persistent overvaluation by oddsmakers or fundamental home performance deficiencies. The 8-game under streak isn't just variance — it reflects Benson's inability to generate consistent hard contact at Great American Ball Park, where his swing-and-miss tendencies become magnified. The 22.2% over rate across 27 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -57.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely caught onto this trend. Benson's profile as a high-strikeout, low-contact hitter makes him particularly vulnerable to home cooking, where familiar surroundings haven't translated to comfort at the plate. The consistency of this underperformance — just six overs in 27 attempts — suggests systemic issues rather than temporary slumps. Without meaningful adjustments to his approach or significant changes in usage patterns, this trend shows strong persistence indicators heading forward.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Benson's home Total Bases props offer exceptional value with nearly 80% under success rate and substantial ROI edge. The 0.7 base differential between performance and lines creates consistent profit opportunities, especially during current 8-game under streak. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or unexpected breakout performances, but his established pattern of home struggles makes unders the superior long-term play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Total Bases prop record home games?
Will Benson has gone under his Total Bases prop in 21 of 27 home games (77.8% under rate) with an average of just 1.04 total bases per game, well below typical 1.76 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Benson's home Total Bases props. The 78% under success rate and +48.5% ROI provide strong mathematical edges, supported by his current 8-game under streak.
What's Will Benson's average Total Bases home games?
Benson averages 1.04 Total Bases in home games, creating a significant 0.7 base deficit compared to typical 1.76 lines. This 41% gap drives consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Benson's home Total Bases unders during his current struggles, especially when lines remain around 1.5-2.0. Avoid when he shows signs of breaking the streak or facing weaker pitching.