Will Benson's home run production has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting just 0.2 homers per game against a typical 0.5 line. With an 80% under rate and five consecutive unders, the power outage appears sustainable given his underlying swing metrics.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's recent power drought reflects more than just bad luck—it's a systematic breakdown in his approach at the plate. Averaging 0.2 home runs per game against a standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.3 differential that has generated consistent under value. The 20% over rate tells only part of the story; the current five-game under streak suggests his swing mechanics have fundamentally shifted. Benson's power typically comes from his ability to turn on fastballs, but recent at-bats show longer swings and poor timing on velocity. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust to his diminished power output, creating persistent value on unders. While regression is always possible with power hitters, Benson's underlying metrics suggest this isn't variance—it's a player struggling with pitch recognition and barrel contact. His longest over streak of just one game demonstrates how rare his power displays have become. The consistency of this trend across different opponents and situations indicates the issue runs deeper than matchup-specific problems.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Benson's 80% under rate over 10 games isn't random variance—it's a player whose power stroke has abandoned him. The five-game under streak and microscopic 0.2 average create excellent betting value against inflated lines. Target unders when books haven't fully adjusted to his power outage, especially in favorable pitcher matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Will Benson has gone under his home runs prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% under rate), with just 2 overs for a 2-8-0 record. He's currently on a five-game under streak, his longest of this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Will Benson's home runs props with high confidence. His 0.2 average against typical 0.5 lines creates excellent value, supported by an 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI on under bets over this 10-game stretch.
What's Will Benson's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Will Benson is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, creating a significant -0.3 differential against the standard 0.5 home run line that books typically offer for his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Benson home run unders when books haven't adjusted lines downward from standard 0.5 offerings. His power outage creates the best value against slower-moving sportsbooks and in matchups against quality pitching staffs.