Will Benson's home run props present one of the most lopsided edges in baseball, hitting over just 11.1% of the time (3-24-0) at home with a devastating -0.4 differential from the 0.5 line. This extreme under bias, reinforced by an active 8-game under streak, creates a compelling systematic fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's home run futility at Great American Ball Park stems from a perfect storm of unfavorable factors. His 0.11 home runs per game average represents a massive 78% shortfall from the standard 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders. The Reds' ballpark dimensions work against Benson's swing profile, as Great American Ball Park's 325-foot foul territory and prevailing wind patterns suppress power numbers for left-handed hitters. Benson's approach exacerbates these conditions - his high strikeout rate and tendency to pull balls into the park's deepest dimensions limit his home run upside. The 8-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the natural result of a player whose skill set mismatches his home environment. Books continue setting the line at 0.5, likely influenced by his occasional road power displays, but fail to adequately adjust for his home park disadvantage. The 69.7% ROI on unders reflects this persistent market inefficiency. Regression concerns are minimal given the underlying mechanics haven't changed, and Benson's plate discipline issues show no signs of improvement that would unlock his home power potential.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Benson's 11.1% over rate at home represents a systematic market failure that shows no signs of correction. The -0.4 differential from the 0.5 line is unsustainable for overs but creates consistent under value. Target this prop whenever available at standard juice, especially during day games when wind conditions further suppress power. The primary risk is a random hot streak, but Benson's underlying approach makes sustained home run production unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Will Benson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Home Runs prop record home games?
Will Benson has gone 3-24-0 over/under on his home runs prop in home games, hitting over just 11.1% of the time. He averages 0.11 home runs per game at home, creating a massive -0.4 differential from the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Will Benson's home runs props at home with high confidence. His 11.1% over rate and 69.7% under ROI represent one of baseball's most reliable prop edges, driven by park factors and approach issues.
What's Will Benson's average Home Runs home games?
Will Benson averages 0.11 home runs per game at home, compared to the standard 0.5 line. This -0.4 differential represents a 78% shortfall, creating massive value on unders and making overs extremely poor bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Benson's home run unders during any home game, especially day games when wind conditions further suppress power. The edge is consistent regardless of opponent, making this a systematic play whenever the prop is available.