Will Benson's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting over just 9 times in 60 games (15.0% rate) while averaging 0.15 homers against a 0.5 line. The under has delivered a remarkable +62.3% ROI, making this a strong fade candidate.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's home run production tells the story of a player whose power hasn't translated to consistent long ball production at the major league level. Averaging just 0.15 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.35 differential that speaks to fundamental swing mechanics and approach issues. The 15.0% over rate across 60 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a sustained pattern that reflects Benson's current offensive ceiling. His longest over streak maxes out at just one game, while he's strung together under streaks as long as 13 games, including his current five-game run. This consistency in failing to clear the number suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his power limitations. The -71.4% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this prop has been for optimistic bettors, while the under's +62.3% return shows the value in fading inflated expectations. Benson's profile suggests a player still developing his power stroke, making regression to significantly higher home run rates unlikely without major mechanical adjustments. The trend's persistence across different pitching matchups and ballparks indicates this isn't situational—it's fundamental to his current skill set.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Benson's 15.0% over rate and -0.35 average differential create exceptional value on the under, supported by his inability to sustain any meaningful over streaks. The ideal conditions are simply any game where the line sits at 0.5, as his current power output consistently falls short. The main risk is a dramatic swing change or hot streak, but 60 games of data suggests his current approach is entrenched.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Home Runs prop record all games?
Will Benson has gone under his home run prop in 51 of 60 games (85% rate) with a record of 9-51-0 O/U. He's averaging 0.15 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a substantial -0.35 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER on Will Benson's home runs with high confidence. His 15.0% over rate and -0.35 average differential make this one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, delivering +62.3% ROI while overs have lost -71.4%.
What's Will Benson's average Home Runs all games?
Will Benson averages 0.15 home runs per game, which falls significantly short of the standard 0.5 prop line. This -0.35 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market expectations, heavily favoring under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Any game where Benson's home run line is set at 0.5 offers excellent under value. His power struggles are consistent across all conditions, making situational factors less relevant than his fundamental inability to reach the market's expectations.