Will Benson's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 2-8 over his last 10 games with a brutal 20% over rate. The Cincinnati outfielder is averaging only 0.6 hits against a 1.6 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Benson's hitting struggles represent more than typical variance - they signal a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and on-field reality. The 0.6 hits average against a 1.6 line creates an enormous 62.5% gap that suggests either inflated lines or genuine regression in his offensive capabilities. The consistency of this underperformance is striking, with Benson currently riding a two-game under streak and having posted his longest under streak of four games during this sample. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, likely driven by sportsbooks slow to adjust to his declining contact rate. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the lack of any meaningful over streaks - his longest over run was just one game, indicating this isn't a hot-and-cold pattern but rather sustained struggles. The timing of this sample, spanning from early July through September, captures both summer baseball and potential late-season fatigue factors. Without clear split advantages or situational edges working in Benson's favor, the path of least resistance continues pointing toward the under. The market appears anchored to earlier season performance or reputation rather than current form.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20% over rate and -1.0 differential create a compelling case, but the limited sample size prevents high confidence. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as Benson's 0.6 average provides substantial cushion. The main risk is positive regression to his career norms, but current form suggests continued struggles. This trend has sustainability given his consistent contact issues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Will Benson has gone 2-8 on hits overs in his last 10 games, producing just a 20% over rate. This translates to 8 unders and only 2 overs, creating a dominant trend favoring the under side of his hits props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Will Benson's hits props. The 2-8 record, 0.6 average against 1.6 line, and 52.7% under ROI create a compelling case. Target lines at 1.5 or higher for maximum value and cushion.
What's Will Benson's average Hits last 10 games?
Will Benson is averaging 0.6 hits over his last 10 games against a typical 1.6 line. This creates a massive -1.0 differential, meaning he's falling short by a full hit on average compared to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Benson hits unders when the line is set at 1.5 or higher, providing maximum cushion against his 0.6 average. Without favorable splits data, focus on games where the standard line offers the best value differential.