Will Benson's hits props present a compelling under opportunity, going under in 70% of games with a 42-game sample. His 0.58 average sits 0.6 hits below the typical 1.17 line, generating a robust 33.6% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Benson's hits.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's hits production reveals a classic case of market overvaluation meeting reality. His 0.58 hits per game average creates a significant 0.6-hit gap below the standard 1.17 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his offensive limitations. The 30% over rate across 60 games isn't a small sample anomaly—it's a sustained pattern reflecting Benson's struggles with consistent contact. His profile as a power-over-hit tool player explains this trend, as he prioritizes launch angle and exit velocity over making contact. The 15-game under streak demonstrates how prolonged his cold stretches can be, while even his hot streaks max out at just 3 overs. This isn't regression territory—it's market inefficiency. Benson's approach generates plenty of strikeouts and weak contact, making multi-hit games rare events rather than expected outcomes. The negative 42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing potential rather than accepting reality. His swing-and-miss tendencies create a reliable under play, especially when books continue setting lines that assume league-average contact skills he simply doesn't possess.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Benson's 70% under rate and 0.6-hit deficit to the line create exceptional value that the market hasn't corrected. Target unders when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, as his contact issues make multi-hit games unlikely events. The main risk is a dramatic approach change, but his power-first profile suggests this trend continues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Hits prop record all games?
Will Benson has gone under his hits prop in 42 of 60 games (70% under rate) with an 18-42-0 over/under record. His consistent struggles reaching the line create a reliable betting pattern for sharp under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Hits all games?
Bet under on Will Benson's hits props. His 70% under rate and 33.6% ROI on unders, combined with a 0.6-hit deficit to typical lines, make this one of the strongest under plays available.
What's Will Benson's average Hits all games?
Will Benson averages 0.58 hits per game, sitting 0.6 hits below the typical 1.17 line. This significant gap explains why he goes under 70% of the time and generates consistent profits for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Benson under bets when the line is 1.0 or higher, as his contact issues make multi-hit games rare. Avoid when he faces weak pitching or in hitter-friendly conditions that might inflate his limited contact.