Wenceel Pérez has been a consistent under performer in Total Bases props at home, posting a dismal 7-17 record (29.2% overs) with his 1.46 average falling 1.3 bases short of typical lines. The under delivers strong +35.2% ROI while overs crater at -44.3%, creating a clear directional edge.
Expert Analysis
Wenceel Pérez's home Total Bases performance reveals a player whose offensive output consistently disappoints relative to market pricing. His 1.46 average at home represents a significant 47% shortfall from typical 2.75 lines, suggesting either persistent home environment struggles or books that haven't fully adjusted to his limitations. The 29.2% over rate across 24 games demonstrates remarkable consistency in underperformance, with only seven games exceeding expectations. Most telling is the streak data showing his longest under run reached nine games while overs peaked at just two consecutive games. This pattern suggests Pérez faces genuine obstacles at home rather than random variance. The -44.3% ROI on overs indicates severe market mispricing, while the +35.2% under ROI confirms the betting edge. Without additional split data, we can't isolate specific matchup advantages, but the broad sample suggests systemic issues with his home approach, whether due to comfort level, park dimensions, or crowd pressure affecting his typically aggressive swing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pérez's home struggles are evident across 24 games, with his production consistently falling short of market expectations. The 1.3-base differential between his average and typical lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his home limitations. Primary risk is sample size regression, but the consistency of underperformance and strong under ROI make this a viable fade spot when lines sit around 2.5-3.0 total bases.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Wenceel Pérez's Total Bases prop record home games?
Wenceel Pérez has gone 7-17 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 29.2% of his over bets. His average of 1.46 total bases per home game falls well short of typical market lines around 2.75.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Wenceel Pérez Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Wenceel Pérez Total Bases in home games. His 70.8% under rate and +35.2% ROI on unders creates a clear edge, especially when lines sit at 2.5 or higher total bases.
What's Wenceel Pérez's average Total Bases home games?
Pérez averages 1.46 total bases per home game, which is 1.3 bases below typical lines of 2.75. This massive differential of nearly 47% represents one of the larger gaps between performance and market pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pérez Total Bases unders when he's at home and lines are set at 2.5 or higher. His consistent underperformance and the market's failure to adjust creates the strongest betting opportunity in home matchups.