Wenceel Pérez has delivered a stark 30% over rate on his hits prop over his last 10 games, averaging just 0.7 hits against a 1.2 line. The under has generated a robust 33.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 42.7%, creating a clear edge on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture of a player struggling to meet market expectations. Pérez's 0.7 hits per game average sits a full half-hit below the typical 1.2 line, representing a massive 41.7% shortfall that suggests either inflated lines or a fundamental decline in contact ability. The 3-7 under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects consistent underperformance that has persisted across different matchups and situations. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is the magnitude of the differential. A 0.5 gap between performance and expectation in hits props is substantial, especially when sustained over 10 games. This suggests either the market hasn't properly adjusted to Pérez's current form, or there are underlying factors affecting his contact rate that aren't reflected in the pricing. The 33.6% ROI on unders indicates this isn't a small edge—it's a significant market inefficiency. The current one-game over streak shouldn't obscure the broader pattern of underperformance. When a player consistently fails to reach his hits total by such a wide margin, it typically indicates either mechanical issues, poor pitch recognition, or simply being overvalued by oddsmakers who haven't caught up to his current reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 0.5 average differential between Pérez's performance and the typical line represents a massive gap that the market hasn't corrected. With a 70% under hit rate and strong ROI backing, this trend shows persistence rather than variance. Target unders when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, as Pérez has consistently struggled to reach even modest hit totals. The primary risk is a sudden mechanical adjustment, but the sample size suggests this is his current level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Wenceel Pérez's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Pérez has gone 3-7 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 0.7 hits per game against a typical 1.2 line, creating a significant 0.5 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Wenceel Pérez Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Pérez's 0.7 average sits well below typical lines, producing a 33.6% ROI on unders while overs lose 42.7%. The 70% under hit rate shows this is a sustainable edge, not variance.
What's Wenceel Pérez's average Hits last 10 games?
Pérez averages 0.7 hits over his last 10 games, sitting 0.5 hits below the typical 1.2 line. This 41.7% shortfall represents a massive gap between performance and market expectation that creates consistent value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pérez hit unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly against quality pitching or in day games where his struggles may be amplified. Avoid when lines drop to 0.5 as the value diminishes significantly.