Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going under the line 90% of the time with just one over in 10 attempts. His 1.4 average sits a massive 1.5 bases below the typical 2.9 line, creating exceptional under value with +71.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Guerrero Jr.'s total bases collapse represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, with his 10% over rate defying even the worst statistical expectations. The 1.5-base differential between his 1.4 average and standard 2.9 lines suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his recent power outage. This isn't just bad luck—five consecutive unders indicate a fundamental shift in his approach or physical condition during this stretch. The -80.9% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently he's falling short, while the corresponding +71.8% under return shows the market's slow adjustment. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—no hot streaks to muddy the waters, just sustained underperformance. The sample size of 10 games provides statistical significance while remaining recent enough to reflect current form rather than seasonal averages. However, regression remains the primary risk, as elite hitters like Guerrero Jr. historically don't maintain such prolonged power droughts. The trend's strength lies in its persistence and the market's apparent lag in line adjustment, but bettors should monitor for any signs of offensive awakening.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90% under rate and massive 1.5-base differential create compelling value, but regression risk prevents higher conviction. Target games where lines remain around 2.5-3.0 total bases, as books appear slow to adjust. Primary risk is Guerrero Jr. snapping out of this funk with a multi-hit, extra-base performance that could signal trend reversal.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Guerrero Jr. has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of over bets. He's averaging only 1.4 total bases per game, well below typical 2.9 lines, creating a massive 1.5-base deficit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Guerrero Jr.'s total bases with medium confidence. The 90% under rate and +71.8% ROI on unders create strong value, though regression risk exists. Target lines around 2.5-3.0 bases for optimal value.
What's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average Total Bases last 10 games?
Guerrero Jr. is averaging just 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical 2.9 lines. This 1.5-base deficit represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations for any regular player.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Guerrero Jr. total bases unders when lines remain 2.5 or higher, indicating books haven't fully adjusted. Avoid after any multi-hit games that could signal trend reversal. Best value appears in consecutive game situations.