Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s total bases prop shows a stark under bias with just 38.8% overs across 67 games. His 1.67 average trails the 1.77 line by 0.1 bases, generating strong +16.8% ROI on unders. The current 5-game under streak reinforces this consistent pattern.
Expert Analysis
Guerrero Jr.'s total bases struggles stem from a fundamental disconnect between his reputation and current production. The 1.77 line appears anchored to his elite 2021 season rather than his recent reality of inconsistent power output. His 38.8% over rate isn't a fluke—it reflects a hitter who's become more selective but less explosive, leading to more singles and walks at the expense of extra-base hits that drive total bases props over. The -0.1 differential between his average and the line might seem minimal, but in total bases betting, even small edges compound significantly over large samples. The 12-game under streak earlier in this sample demonstrates how prolonged slumps can devastate total bases production. Guerrero Jr.'s approach has evolved toward patience over aggression, which benefits his on-base percentage but hurts total bases accumulation. Books have been slow to adjust the line downward, likely due to his name recognition and past performance. The 5-game current under streak suggests this pattern persists, with his average remaining stubbornly below the inflated line. This isn't about talent degradation—it's about a shift in hitting approach that the betting market hasn't fully recognized.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 38.8% over rate and consistent -0.1 differential create a sustainable edge against inflated lines. Target games where Guerrero Jr. faces quality pitching or in day games where his splits historically worsen. The main risk is a hot streak that could quickly eat into profits, but the 67-game sample suggests this under bias has staying power through various conditions.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Vladimir Guerrero Jr. props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Total Bases prop record all games?
Guerrero Jr. has gone over his total bases prop in just 26 of 67 games (38.8% rate) with an average of 1.67 total bases. His under record of 41-26-0 shows consistent performance below expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Guerrero Jr.'s total bases props. The 38.8% over rate and +16.8% under ROI across 67 games creates a clear edge, especially with his current 5-game under streak reinforcing the pattern.
What's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average Total Bases all games?
Guerrero Jr. averages 1.67 total bases per game, which trails the typical 1.77 line by 0.1 bases. This consistent gap has produced profitable under betting opportunities throughout the 67-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when Guerrero Jr. faces quality pitching or in day games where power numbers typically decline. Avoid betting during hot streaks, but the 67-game sample suggests consistent value on unders.