Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s home run prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, going 1-9-0 with just a 10.0% over rate across his last 10 games. Averaging only 0.1 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, the under delivers a massive +71.8% ROI while overs crater at -80.9%. This represents a clear lean under with high conviction.
Expert Analysis
Guerrero Jr.'s power drought represents one of the most reliable prop betting trends in baseball, with the slugger managing just one home run across 10 games while consistently facing 0.5 lines. The -0.4 differential between his actual production and betting expectations creates substantial value on unders. This isn't a small sample fluke—five consecutive unders demonstrate sustained power suppression that sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted for. The 90% under rate suggests either a mechanical issue, injury concern, or fundamental shift in approach that's persisting beyond normal variance. What makes this trend particularly bankable is the consistency—Guerrero Jr. isn't alternating good and bad games, he's systematically failing to reach the long ball threshold. The ROI split tells the complete story: while over bettors hemorrhage 80.9% of their investment, under backers profit at an elite 71.8% clip. Sportsbooks appear slow to adjust, likely banking on Guerrero Jr.'s reputation and expecting regression that simply hasn't materialized. The streak's length and the player's historical power profile create a perfect storm where books maintain optimistic lines while reality delivers consistent unders.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with HIGH confidence. Guerrero Jr.'s 90% under rate over 10 games creates exceptional value, especially with his 0.1 average sitting 0.4 home runs below typical lines. The five-game under streak and consistent power absence suggest this isn't random variance but a sustained issue. Target this prop when lines remain at 0.5, as books haven't adequately adjusted to his current power drought. Main risk is sample size regression, but the consistency and ROI differential support continued under betting until clear signs of power returning emerge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Guerrero Jr. has gone 1-9-0 on home run props over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 10.0% of the time. He's managed only one home run total across this span while consistently facing 0.5 lines, creating a massive under opportunity.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Guerrero Jr.'s 90% under rate and +71.8% ROI for under bettors creates exceptional value. His current 0.1 average sits well below typical 0.5 lines, making unders the clear profitable play until power returns.
What's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average Home Runs last 10 games?
Guerrero Jr. is averaging just 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games, sitting 0.4 below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential between production and betting expectations creates substantial value for under bettors in the current market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Guerrero Jr. home run unders when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, particularly during day games or against quality pitching. His current power drought makes any standard line profitable for under betting until clear signs of regression appear.