Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s home run production at Rogers Centre has been historically weak, hitting just 15.6% overs across 32 games with a devastating -70.2% ROI on overs. His 0.16 home runs per game average sits significantly below the standard 0.5 line. This represents a strong UNDER lean.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Guerrero Jr.'s home run struggles in Toronto. His 5-27 over record represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props, with the slugger averaging just 0.16 homers per home game against a typical 0.5 line. This isn't a small sample fluke—32 games provides substantial data showing consistent underperformance. The -0.3 differential between his average and the line is massive in home run betting terms. Rogers Centre's dimensions may play a role, as the ballpark features a deep left field that can suppress power numbers for right-handed hitters like Guerrero Jr. The 12-game under streak within this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting systemic factors rather than random variance. While regression is always possible with elite hitters, the consistency of this underperformance across multiple seasons indicates deeper issues with his home power production. The +61.1% ROI on unders shows this hasn't been properly adjusted by oddsmakers, creating ongoing value. The fact that his longest over streak was just 2 games while his longest under streak reached 12 games reinforces the one-sided nature of this trend.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Guerrero Jr.'s home run production at Rogers Centre has been remarkably consistent in underperforming expectations, creating a rare high-confidence prop bet. The ideal conditions are standard 0.5 lines in day games when books haven't adjusted for his home struggles. The main risk is natural regression from an elite hitter, but the sample size and consistency suggest this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s Home Runs prop record home games?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has gone 5-27 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 15.6% of his overs with a -70.2% ROI. He averages 0.16 home runs per game at Rogers Centre against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Guerrero Jr.'s home run props at Rogers Centre with high confidence. His 15.6% over rate and +61.1% under ROI across 32 games represents one of baseball's most reliable prop trends.
What's Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average Home Runs home games?
Guerrero Jr. averages 0.16 home runs per home game, creating a significant -0.3 differential against the standard 0.5 line. This massive gap explains his consistent underperformance and strong under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target standard 0.5 home run lines during day games when books haven't adjusted for his home struggles. Avoid inflated lines above 0.5, as the value diminishes when oddsmakers account for his Rogers Centre issues.