Tyrone Taylor's home run production at home presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, hitting just 1-15-0 over/under with a devastating 6.2% over rate. Taylor averages 0.06 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that translates to exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a crystal clear picture of Taylor's power limitations at Citi Field. His 0.06 home run average per home game represents an 88% shortfall from standard 0.5 betting lines, indicating bookmakers consistently overvalue his power potential in familiar surroundings. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in Taylor's contact-oriented profile and Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The ballpark's 408-foot center field and marine layer conditions suppress fly ball carry, particularly problematic for Taylor's moderate exit velocities. His current 10-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only one home run across 16 home contests spanning the entire 2024 season. The -88.1% ROI on overs versus +79.0% on unders creates a betting chasm rarely seen in prop markets. Taylor's approach emphasizes contact and gap power over launch angle optimization, making him poorly suited for home run production even in hitter-friendly counts. Without significant swing changes or a dramatic shift in his batted ball profile, this trend shows minimal regression risk. The sample size covers nearly a full season of home games, providing statistical reliability that transcends small-sample concerns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Taylor's 6.2% over rate and 0.06 home run average create exceptional under value that shows no signs of meaningful regression. The combination of his contact-first approach, Citi Field's dimensions, and consistent underperformance across 16 games makes this one of the season's most reliable trends. Target unders aggressively when lines sit at 0.5, with minimal concern about positive regression given his fundamental swing characteristics.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrone Taylor's Home Runs prop record home games?
Taylor's home run prop record at home games stands at 1-15-0 over/under, representing just a 6.2% over rate across 16 contests in 2024. This translates to hitting the over once while falling short 15 times, creating one of the season's most lopsided trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrone Taylor Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Taylor's home runs at home games with high confidence. His 6.2% over rate and massive -0.4 differential from typical lines create exceptional value. The trend shows minimal regression risk given his contact-first profile and Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions.
What's Tyrone Taylor's average Home Runs home games?
Taylor averages 0.06 home runs per home game, sitting 0.4 runs below standard 0.5 betting lines. This represents an 88% shortfall from typical props, indicating consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers and creating systematic under opportunities throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor's home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, particularly in day games when Citi Field's marine layer is strongest. Avoid betting when he faces extreme flyball pitchers, though his contact approach limits risk even in favorable matchups.