Tyler Stephenson's Total Bases prop at home presents a sharp under opportunity with a dismal 32.4% over rate across 37 games. Averaging just 1.68 total bases against a 2.23 line creates a massive -0.6 differential that has delivered consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Stephenson's home Total Bases trend reveals a catcher operating well below market expectations in his own ballpark. The 32.4% over rate across 37 games isn't random variance — it's a systematic underperformance that suggests Great American Ball Park's dimensions or Stephenson's approach changes significantly at home. The -0.6 differential between his 1.68 average and the typical 2.23 line is enormous in baseball terms, indicating oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home struggles. Catchers often face different usage patterns at home, potentially seeing more defensive-focused appearances or altered lineup positioning that limits offensive opportunities. The +29.0% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a losing proposition for overs — it's been genuinely profitable for under bettors. Most concerning for over backers is the eight-game under streak within this sample, showing extended periods where Stephenson simply couldn't reach his Total Bases number at home. While regression is always possible, the sample size of 37 games provides substantial confidence that this represents a genuine home/road split rather than temporary variance. The consistency of the underperformance suggests structural factors rather than random fluctuation.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Tyler Stephenson's Total Bases props at home offer exceptional under value with a proven -0.6 differential and 67.6% under rate. The +29.0% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profit potential. Ideal conditions exist when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality. Main risk is sample size regression, but 37 games provides strong statistical foundation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Stephenson's Total Bases prop record home games?
Tyler Stephenson has gone under his Total Bases prop in 25 of 37 home games (67.6% under rate) with a 12-25-0 over/under record. His home average of 1.68 total bases consistently falls short of the typical 2.23 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Stephenson Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Tyler Stephenson's Total Bases at home with high confidence. The 67.6% under rate and +29.0% ROI provide strong evidence of consistent value, especially when the line is set at 2.0 or higher.
What's Tyler Stephenson's average Total Bases home games?
Tyler Stephenson averages 1.68 total bases in home games, creating a significant -0.6 differential compared to the typical 2.23 line. This gap represents substantial under value that has persisted across 37 games.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Stephenson's Total Bases under is at home when the line is 2.0 or higher, maximizing the value gap. Avoid road games where this trend doesn't apply and his performance metrics likely differ significantly.