Tyler Soderstrom's Total Bases under is printing money at home, hitting 80% of the time with a massive -1.5 differential from the 2.4 line. His 0.9 average at home represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball. This is a high-confidence fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a crystal-clear picture of a young catcher struggling to generate power in his home ballpark. Soderstrom's 0.9 Total Bases average at home sits a staggering 1.5 bases below the typical 2.4 line, creating a 62.5% gap that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted or Oakland Coliseum's pitcher-friendly dimensions are severely limiting his production. The 20% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic pattern that reflects both his developmental stage as a prospect and the environmental factors working against him. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates consistency in failing to reach the number, while his longest over streak maxes out at just one game. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors getting crushed backing his upside, while under backers have enjoyed a robust +52.7% return. This isn't just about a cold streak; it's about a fundamental mismatch between expectation and reality for a player still finding his footing at the major league level in one of baseball's most challenging offensive environments.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 1.5-base differential between Soderstrom's home average and the typical line creates exceptional value on the under. Target this when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, particularly in day games where offensive numbers traditionally dip further. The primary risk is a random multi-hit game breaking the pattern, but the 80% hit rate suggests this edge remains exploitable until the market significantly adjusts the line downward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Soderstrom's Total Bases prop record home games?
Soderstrom's Total Bases prop has gone under in 8 of 10 home games (80%), with an average of just 0.9 Total Bases against lines typically set around 2.4. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in current baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Soderstrom Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Soderstrom's 0.9 home average sits 1.5 bases below typical lines, creating a 62.5% value gap. The under has delivered a +52.7% ROI while overs have lost 61.8% of investment.
What's Tyler Soderstrom's average Total Bases home games?
Soderstrom averages 0.9 Total Bases in home games, compared to the standard 2.4 line—a massive 1.5-base differential. This 62.5% gap between performance and expectation creates exceptional under value in the betting market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Soderstrom Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, especially in day games at Oakland Coliseum. The combination of his developmental stage and the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions maximizes under value.