Tyler Freeman's home Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 28.6% of overs across 28 games with a massive -0.7 differential between his 1.25 average and typical 1.96 lines. The under delivers +36.4% ROI while overs hemorrhage -45.5%, creating a clear statistical edge.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home Total Bases struggles stem from his role as Cleveland's utility player rather than an everyday starter, limiting his plate appearances and power opportunities at Progressive Field. His 1.25 home average sits dramatically below typical 1.96 lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced offensive output in familiar surroundings. The 72% under rate over 28 games indicates systematic overvaluation rather than random variance. Freeman's contact-oriented approach generates singles more than extra-base hits, and Progressive Field's spacious dimensions don't favor his gap-to-gap style. The current two-game under streak extends a pattern where Freeman rarely sustains offensive momentum at home. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade when his limited power doesn't translate. The absence of meaningful split variations suggests this trend persists across different lineup positions and matchup types. With Freeman averaging just over one total base per home game, even modest 1.5 lines become challenging hurdles. The 36.4% under ROI indicates this edge has been consistently exploitable, while the devastating -45.5% over ROI warns against contrarian thinking.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 1.25 home average creates substantial value when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, but the 28-game sample demands respect for potential regression. Target spots where Freeman bats lower in the order or faces quality pitching that limits his contact opportunities. The main risk is a hot streak that could quickly erode this edge, but his utility role and Progressive Field's dimensions support continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Total Bases prop record home games?
Freeman's Total Bases record at home stands at 8-20-0 over/under (28.6% overs) across 28 games from September 2023 to August 2024, showing strong under tendencies with a -0.7 differential between his actual performance and betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Freeman's Total Bases at home, especially when lines reach 1.5 or higher. The 72% under rate and +36.4% ROI create a statistical edge, though maintain proper bankroll management given the medium-sized sample.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Total Bases home games?
Freeman averages 1.25 Total Bases in home games compared to typical lines around 1.96, creating a significant -0.7 differential. This gap suggests consistent line value when betting unders at Progressive Field throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman Total Bases unders when he bats sixth or lower in Cleveland's lineup, faces quality starting pitching, or when lines are set at 1.5+. Avoid during hot streaks or against struggling pitchers in favorable hitting conditions.