Tyler Freeman's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 27.6% overs across 58 games. His 1.16 average falls nearly a full base short of typical 2.05 lines, creating a -0.9 differential that translates to +38.2% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's total bases struggles stem from his limited power profile and contact-heavy approach that rarely produces extra-base hits. The 1.16 average against 2.05 lines reveals a fundamental disconnect between market pricing and Freeman's actual production capabilities. His recent 3-game under streak extends what has been a remarkably consistent pattern throughout the sample period. The 10-game under streak earlier in the dataset demonstrates how prolonged Freeman's dry spells can become when his singles-heavy approach fails to generate the multiple hits needed to reach inflated totals. Freeman's role as a utility player often means inconsistent playing time and positioning, factors that compound the difficulty of accumulating bases across full games. The -47.3% over ROI indicates the market consistently overvalues Freeman's upside potential, likely influenced by occasional multi-hit performances that mask his underlying limitations. His contact skills keep him from extended hitless stretches, but the lack of power means he needs multiple singles or a rare double to clear most total bases lines. This creates a mathematical disadvantage where Freeman must outperform his typical output significantly just to push totals, making unders the statistically superior play across various game contexts and matchups.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's 1.16 average creates nearly a full base of value against standard 2.05 lines, supported by exceptional +38.2% under ROI across 58 games. Target this play in any game where Freeman is starting, particularly when lines sit at 2.0 or higher. Main risk involves Freeman connecting for multiple hits in a high-scoring affair, but his limited power profile makes this scenario statistically unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Total Bases prop record all games?
Freeman's total bases record shows 16 overs and 42 unders across 58 games, translating to just 27.6% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in our database, with unders hitting at nearly a 3-to-1 ratio.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Freeman's total bases props with high confidence. His 1.16 average falls nearly a full base short of typical 2.05 lines, creating substantial mathematical value that has produced +38.2% ROI on under bets.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Total Bases all games?
Freeman averages 1.16 total bases per game compared to typical 2.05 lines, creating a -0.9 differential. This means he falls short of the betting line by nearly a full base on average, indicating significant under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Freeman total bases unders whenever he's starting, especially when lines are 2.0 or higher. His limited power profile makes him consistently vulnerable regardless of matchup, though target games where he's batting lower in the order.