Tyler Freeman's home run production at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting the over just 10.3% of the time across 29 games with a devastating -80.2% ROI for over bettors. Freeman averages 0.1 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home run futility at Progressive Field stems from his fundamental profile as a contact-first utility player who prioritizes putting the ball in play over driving for power. His 0.1 home run average at home represents an extreme deviation from even modest power expectations, suggesting the betting market consistently overvalues his pop in familiar surroundings. The 16-game under streak within this sample reveals a player whose approach doesn't change based on venue—Freeman's swing mechanics and plate discipline remain geared toward line drives and ground balls regardless of ballpark dimensions. Progressive Field's pitcher-friendly reputation only amplifies this trend, as Freeman lacks the raw power to consistently clear the fences even in neutral conditions. The sample size of 29 games provides robust statistical significance, while the consistency of the pattern (longest over streak of just one game) indicates this isn't variance but rather a reflection of Freeman's true talent level. The market's persistent pricing around 0.5 suggests books haven't fully adjusted to Freeman's power limitations at home, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who recognize his role as a table-setter rather than run producer.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's extreme home run futility at Progressive Field creates a systematic market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit aggressively. The combination of his contact-oriented approach, the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions, and the market's failure to properly adjust the line makes this one of the most reliable under bets in baseball. Risk only emerges if Freeman dramatically changes his approach or gets moved to a more favorable spot in the lineup.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Home Runs prop record home games?
Tyler Freeman has hit the over on his home runs prop just 3 times in 29 home games, posting a dismal 10.3% over rate. This translates to a 26-3 under record, making it one of the most lopsided trends in baseball betting.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Home Runs home games?
Bet the under aggressively on Tyler Freeman's home runs props at home. His 0.1 average against typical 0.5 lines creates consistent value, backed by a 71.2% ROI on under bets and systematic market mispricing.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Home Runs home games?
Tyler Freeman averages 0.1 home runs per home game, a massive 0.4 differential below the typical 0.5 line. This gap represents one of the largest statistical edges available in player prop betting markets.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Freeman's home runs under consistently at Progressive Field, especially on standard 0.5 lines. The edge is strongest when books haven't adjusted for his power limitations, which appears to be the persistent market condition.