Tyler Freeman presents one of the most lopsided home run props in baseball, going over just 5 times in 57 games (8.8% rate) while averaging 0.09 homers against a 0.5 line. The -83.2% over ROI and current 6-game under streak signal a clear structural edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home run futility stems from his profile as a contact-oriented utility player rather than a power threat. His 0.09 average against the standard 0.5 line creates a massive -0.4 differential that reflects his fundamental approach at the plate. The 8.8% over rate across 57 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a reflection of Freeman's skillset and role within Cleveland's lineup. His longest over streak of just one game compared to a 15-game under streak demonstrates the consistency of this trend. The -83.2% over ROI is catastrophic for over bettors, while under backers have enjoyed a robust +74.2% return. Freeman's current 6-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, suggesting the market continues to overvalue his home run potential. Without any meaningful power surge in his recent form or favorable splits to suggest regression, this trend appears sustainable. The key risk lies in Freeman potentially changing his approach or getting hot for a brief stretch, but his track record suggests such deviations would be temporary rather than indicative of a fundamental shift in his offensive profile.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's 8.8% over rate and 0.09 average create a structural mismatch against the 0.5 line that the market hasn't properly adjusted for. The under has delivered consistent profits with a +74.2% ROI while overs have been a disaster at -83.2%. Bet the under in any game situation, as Freeman's contact-heavy approach and limited power make home runs an exception rather than expectation. The main risk is a random hot streak, but his 15-game under streak shows even those are rare and brief.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Home Runs prop record all games?
Freeman's home run prop record stands at 5-52-0 over/under across 57 games, translating to just an 8.8% over rate. He's averaging 0.09 homers per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Home Runs all games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Freeman's 8.8% over rate and +74.2% under ROI make this one of the most reliable under props in baseball. His contact-heavy approach and limited power profile create a structural edge that the market hasn't properly priced.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Home Runs all games?
Freeman averages 0.09 home runs per game compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap reflects his role as a contact hitter rather than power threat, making the under a mathematically sound play in most situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Freeman's home run under in any game situation, as his 8.8% over rate shows consistency regardless of matchup. The trend appears strongest during his current 6-game under streak, but his 15-game maximum under streak suggests this edge persists across various conditions.