Tyler Freeman's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 1-9 over his last 10 games with an abysmal 10.0% over rate. Averaging only 0.5 hits against a 1.9 line creates a massive -1.4 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Freeman's hits production has fallen off a cliff over this 10-game stretch, creating one of the most lopsided prop trends in recent memory. The 0.5 hits average against a 1.9 line represents a staggering underperformance that suggests either Freeman is dealing with an underlying issue or the market hasn't properly adjusted to his diminished role. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates just how profitable this fade has been, while the -80.9% over ROI shows the carnage on the other side. Freeman's current streak of three consecutive unders pales in comparison to his longest under streak of six games, indicating this isn't just a brief cold spell but a sustained period of poor offensive output. The fact that his longest over streak during this period was just one game further emphasizes how consistently he's fallen short of expectations. For a player who typically sees regular at-bats, this level of hit production suggests either reduced playing time, poor plate discipline, or simply getting overmatched by opposing pitching. The market appears slow to adjust, creating continued value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 10.0% over rate and -1.4 differential to the line creates clear value, but the sample size demands caution. Target games where Freeman faces quality pitching or in situations where his playing time might be limited. The main risk is regression to the mean and potential market adjustment, but until Freeman shows signs of breaking out of this funk, the under remains the sharper play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Freeman has gone 1-9 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. Under bettors have cashed 9 of 10 tickets with a 71.8% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Freeman's hits props. His 0.5 average against a 1.9 line creates a -1.4 differential that's been incredibly profitable for under bettors at 71.8% ROI over 10 games.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Hits last 10 games?
Freeman is averaging just 0.5 hits per game over his last 10 contests. This is 1.4 hits below the typical 1.9 line, representing a massive underperformance that creates clear under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman hits unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games following night games. His 6-game under streak shows consistency, making most situations favorable for under bets.