Tyler Freeman's away hits props present a compelling under opportunity with a stark 33.3% over rate across 30 games. Freeman averages just 0.6 hits per away game against a typical 1.27 line, creating a massive -0.7 differential that has delivered +27.3% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's road struggles stem from a clear pattern of offensive regression away from Progressive Field. The 0.6 hits per game average represents a significant departure from what oddsmakers expect, suggesting either persistent market inefficiency or fundamental issues with Freeman's road approach. The current seven-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the continuation of a broader trend where Freeman consistently fails to reach inflated expectations. His 33.3% over rate indicates systematic underperformance rather than variance, particularly concerning given the sample spans over a full season. The -0.7 differential between his actual production and the betting line creates substantial value, especially when considering that hits props typically carry lower juice than other markets. Freeman's road offensive profile appears fundamentally different from his home performance, whether due to comfort level, specific ballpark factors, or travel-related fatigue. The consistency of this underperformance across 30 games provides strong statistical backing for continued under betting, though regression risk always exists with any trend this pronounced.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's road hits props offer consistent value with a 67% under hit rate and positive ROI backing the play. The -0.7 differential between his 0.6 average and typical 1.27 lines creates exploitable opportunities, particularly during the current seven-game under streak. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or regression to league-average road performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Hits prop record away games?
Freeman's away hits props show a 10-20-0 over/under record across 30 games, hitting the over just 33.3% of the time. This represents one of the more lopsided prop trends available, with unders cashing at a 67% clip and generating positive ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Hits away games?
Bet under on Freeman's away hits props. The data strongly supports this approach with a 67% under hit rate, +27.3% ROI, and a current seven-game under streak. His 0.6 average creates significant value against inflated lines.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Hits away games?
Freeman averages 0.6 hits per away game compared to typical betting lines around 1.27, creating a substantial -0.7 differential. This gap represents the core value proposition, as oddsmakers consistently overestimate his road offensive production by more than one full hit.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman's away hits unders during road series, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher. The current seven-game under streak suggests continued value, particularly against teams with strong pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks that amplify his road struggles.