Tyler Freeman's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going under in 64.4% of games with a stellar +23.0% ROI. His 0.69 hits per game average sits significantly below the typical 1.25 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Freeman's hits prop presents one of the clearest under trends in baseball, driven by fundamental offensive limitations that make the standard 1.25 line consistently inflated. Freeman's 0.69 hits per game average creates a massive 0.56 gap below the typical line, indicating sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted for his contact struggles. The 35.6% over rate across 59 games represents substantial sample size validation, while the devastating -32.0% ROI on overs shows the market consistently overvalues his hitting ability. Freeman's role as a utility player often means inconsistent playing time and lineup positioning, factors that further suppress his hit totals. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, where he's recorded a brutal nine-game under streak at his worst. His profile lacks the contact skills or lineup protection needed to consistently reach multi-hit games, making 1+ hits props particularly vulnerable. The +23.0% under ROI demonstrates that this isn't just a statistical anomaly but a sustainable edge based on Freeman's actual skill level versus market perception.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 0.69 hits per game average creates substantial value against 1.25 lines, supported by a 64.4% under rate and profitable +23.0% ROI. The edge is strongest when Freeman bats lower in the order or faces quality pitching. Main risk is potential lineup changes or hot streaks, but his contact limitations make sustained improvement unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Hits prop record all games?
Freeman's hits props show a 21-38 record (35.6% overs) across 59 games from August 2023 to August 2024. Under bettors have profited with a +23.0% ROI while overs have lost -32.0%, making this one of the most lopsided trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Hits all games?
Bet under on Freeman's hits props. His 0.69 hits per game average sits well below typical 1.25 lines, creating consistent value. The 64.4% under rate and +23.0% ROI provide strong evidence this edge remains exploitable.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Hits all games?
Freeman averages 0.69 hits per game, significantly below the standard 1.25 line. This 0.56 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual performance and market expectations, explaining why unders hit at a 64.4% rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman's hits unders when he bats seventh or lower in the lineup and faces above-average pitching. His limited contact skills become more pronounced in these situations, making the already favorable under odds even stronger.