Tyler Fitzgerald has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 10.0% of his Hits props over his last 10 games with a brutal 1-9-0 record. Averaging 0.7 hits against a 1.4 line creates a massive -0.7 differential that screams systematic under value.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Fitzgerald's Hits props present one of the most lopsided trends in recent memory, with his 10.0% over rate suggesting either a fundamental shift in his offensive approach or books being slow to adjust lines. The rookie shortstop is averaging just 0.7 hits per game over this stretch, falling short of the typical 1.4 line by a full hit per contest. This isn't marginal underperformance — it's systematic failure to reach even modest expectations. The current six-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained pattern, possibly tied to late-season fatigue, opposing teams adjusting to his approach, or mechanical issues that haven't been publicly addressed. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance. Fitzgerald isn't alternating good and bad games; he's simply not getting hits at the rate books expect. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors who haven't caught up to this new reality, while the +71.8% return on unders rewards those following the data. For a young player still establishing himself, this level of consistent underperformance suggests either a temporary slump that books haven't properly accounted for, or a more fundamental issue with his current offensive state.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Tyler Fitzgerald's Hits props offer exceptional under value with his 0.7 average creating massive line value against typical 1.4+ offerings. The six-game under streak and 90% under rate indicate this isn't variance but a sustained pattern. Target unders when lines remain elevated above 1.0, especially in tough matchups. Main risk is books finally adjusting lines to reflect his current reality.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Fitzgerald's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Fitzgerald has gone 1-9-0 on Hits props over his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's averaging 0.7 hits per game against lines typically set around 1.4, creating a massive -0.7 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Fitzgerald Hits last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Tyler Fitzgerald's Hits props with high confidence. His 90% under rate and -0.7 average differential create exceptional value. The six-game under streak and +71.8% under ROI make this one of the strongest trends available.
What's Tyler Fitzgerald's average Hits last 10 games?
Tyler Fitzgerald is averaging just 0.7 hits per game over his last 10 contests, compared to typical lines around 1.4. This -0.7 differential represents nearly a full hit below expectations, making unders extremely profitable at +71.8% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Fitzgerald Hits unders when lines remain at 1.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching or in day games after night games. His current form suggests any line above his 0.7 average offers value.