Trevor Story's Total Bases props in away games present a clear under opportunity, with just 35.7% overs across 14 games and an average of 0.86 versus a 1.71 line. The massive -0.9 differential and +22.7% under ROI signal consistent underperformance on the road.
Expert Analysis
Story's road struggles with Total Bases stem from a combination of environmental factors and approach changes that create predictable underperformance. The 0.86 average against a 1.71 line represents a staggering 50% shortfall, suggesting either consistent line inflation or fundamental road disadvantages. Away games eliminate Fenway Park's unique dimensions, including the Green Monster that can turn routine fly balls into doubles. Story's power metrics likely decline without familiar sight lines and wind patterns he's accustomed to at home. The sample size of 14 games provides sufficient data for trend recognition, while the longest under streak of 4 games indicates sustainable patterns rather than random variance. Road environments often feature different pitcher usage patterns, with opposing teams deploying their best relievers more liberally at home. Story's 35.7% over rate suggests bookmakers haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect his road limitations, creating consistent value on unders. The -31.8% over ROI confirms bettors who chase the inflated totals face significant losses, while under backers enjoy profitable returns. This trend appears structural rather than temporary, as road disadvantages in baseball tend to persist throughout careers due to comfort and familiarity factors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Story's road Total Bases props offer consistent value with a 0.85-point average shortfall creating exploitable line value. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly road environments. The main risk involves small sample variance and potential regression if Story adjusts his road approach, but the structural advantages favor continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Total Bases prop record away games?
Story is 5-9-0 on Total Bases overs in away games (35.7% over rate) with an average of 0.86 total bases per road game. This represents significant underperformance against typical line expectations of 1.71.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Story's Total Bases in away games. The 0.85-point average deficit and +22.7% under ROI create consistent value, particularly when lines are set at 1.5 or higher in road environments.
What's Trevor Story's average Total Bases away games?
Story averages 0.86 Total Bases in away games compared to typical lines around 1.71, creating a massive 0.85-point negative differential. This 50% shortfall indicates systematic underperformance on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Story's Total Bases unders in road games when lines are 1.5+, especially in pitcher-friendly environments. Avoid when he faces weak road pitching or in hitter-friendly ballparks that might offset his road struggles.