Trevor Story's total bases prop presents a strong under opportunity with just 38.1% overs across 21 games. Story averages 1.33 total bases against a 1.93 line, creating a -0.6 differential that has produced +18.2% ROI on unders. This trend shows consistent underperformance worthy of exploitation.
Expert Analysis
Trevor Story's total bases struggles stem from a combination of injury recovery and declining power production that has persisted throughout this sample. His 1.33 average against a 1.93 line represents a significant 31% shortfall, indicating oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his diminished offensive output. The Red Sox shortstop has battled various injuries that have sapped his ability to drive the ball with authority, leading to more singles and weak contact rather than the extra-base hits that inflate total bases numbers. Story's 8-13 record includes a telling longest under streak of 6 games, demonstrating sustained periods where he simply couldn't reach his prop number. The -27.3% ROI on overs versus +18.2% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge for contrarian bettors. While Story showed flashes of his former power earlier in his career, the consistency of this underperformance across different matchups and situations suggests this isn't merely bad luck but a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The sample size of 21 games provides sufficient data to identify a legitimate trend, especially given the magnitude of the differential between his actual production and market expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Story's persistent underperformance against his total bases line creates a sustainable edge, with the -0.6 differential and 18.2% ROI on unders providing mathematical support. Target this prop when Story faces quality pitching or in day games where his historically weaker performance amplifies. The primary risk is a sudden power surge, but his injury history and current form suggest continued struggles reaching inflated lines.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Total Bases prop record all games?
Trevor Story's total bases prop record shows 8 overs and 13 unders across 21 games, hitting just 38.1% of his overs. This translates to a -27.3% ROI on over bets while under bets have generated a profitable +18.2% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Trevor Story's total bases props. His 1.33 average versus 1.93 line creates a -0.6 differential with strong +18.2% ROI on unders. The consistent underperformance across 21 games indicates a sustainable edge betting against inflated numbers.
What's Trevor Story's average Total Bases all games?
Trevor Story averages 1.33 total bases per game, significantly below his typical 1.93 prop line. This -0.6 differential represents a 31% shortfall, indicating the market hasn't properly adjusted to his diminished offensive production and injury-related decline.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Story's total bases unders against quality pitching staffs and in day games where his performance historically weakens. His 6-game under streak shows sustained poor stretches, making consecutive betting opportunities viable when the differential remains significant.