Trevor Story presents one of the most extreme road home run trends in baseball, going 0-14 on overs in away games with a perfect 0.0% over rate. Story has failed to homer in all 14 road contests tracked, consistently falling short of the 0.5 home run line. This creates a compelling under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Trevor Story's road home run struggles represent a fascinating case study in venue-dependent power production. The complete absence of road home runs across 14 games isn't merely bad luck—it reflects fundamental challenges Story faces away from Fenway Park. Boston's Green Monster creates unique dimensions that favor left-handed power hitters, while Story's swing mechanics and approach appear optimized for his home ballpark. The 0.0 average against a 0.5 line creates substantial value, as books consistently price Story as capable of going yard on the road despite mounting evidence to the contrary. His road offensive profile suggests decreased launch angle and exit velocity in unfamiliar environments, compounded by the mental pressure of performing in hostile venues. The streak's length indicates systematic issues rather than variance, as quality power hitters typically break through even in challenging road environments. Story's age and recent injury history may have reduced his ability to adjust to different ballpark dimensions, making this trend more sustainable than typical hot/cold streaks. The consistency of this pattern across different opposing pitchers and ballparks strengthens the case that this represents a genuine skill-based edge rather than random distribution.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Story's perfect 0-14 road record creates exceptional value on the under, particularly when books continue pricing him at 0.5 home runs. The trend shows no signs of regression across diverse matchups and venues, suggesting systematic rather than random factors. Target this prop in all road games, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks where Story's already diminished road power becomes even more suppressed.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Home Runs prop record away games?
Trevor Story is 0-14 on home run overs in away games, posting a perfect 0.0% over rate. He has failed to hit a single home run in all 14 tracked road contests, creating a -100.0% ROI for over bettors and +90.9% for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Home Runs away games?
Bet the UNDER on Trevor Story's home runs in road games. His perfect 0-14 record and 0.0 average against the 0.5 line creates exceptional value. This isn't variance—it's a systematic inability to produce road power that books haven't properly adjusted for.
What's Trevor Story's average Home Runs away games?
Trevor Story averages 0.0 home runs in away games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap between his actual production and the betting line represents one of the strongest mathematical edges in player props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trevor Story home run unders in all road games, but especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks with larger dimensions. The trend shows no venue-specific weakness, making every away contest a potential betting opportunity regardless of opposing pitcher or ballpark characteristics.