Trevor Story's home run drought represents one of the most reliable betting trends in baseball, with a perfect 0-21-0 under record spanning over a year. Story has averaged zero home runs per game against a consistent 0.5 line, creating a -100% ROI on overs and +90.9% on unders. This is a clear lean under with high conviction.
Expert Analysis
Trevor Story's complete absence of home runs over 21 consecutive games reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive profile that extends far beyond typical slumps. The Boston shortstop has managed zero home runs while consistently facing 0.5 lines, suggesting sportsbooks have been slow to adjust to his dramatically diminished power output. This isn't merely bad luck or small sample variance—21 games represents nearly an eighth of a full season, providing substantial evidence of sustained power decline. Story's transformation from a legitimate 20-25 home run threat to someone who can't clear the fence even once indicates either significant injury concerns, mechanical issues, or age-related deterioration that has fundamentally altered his swing plane and bat speed. The consistency of this trend across different opponents, ballparks, and game situations demonstrates this isn't situational—it's systematic. While regression toward historical norms might seem inevitable, Story's complete power outage suggests the market may still be pricing him based on past performance rather than current reality. The 90.9% ROI on unders reflects the betting value created by this disconnect between perception and production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Trevor Story's perfect 0-21 under streak on home runs represents elite betting value, with the market consistently overvaluing his power potential. The 21-game sample size eliminates variance concerns and establishes a clear pattern of power decline. Target this prop in any game situation, as Story's complete inability to generate home run production appears systematic rather than situational. The primary risk is eventual regression, but his current form suggests continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Home Runs prop record all games?
Trevor Story holds a perfect 0-21-0 record on home run unders across all games, with zero overs hit in 21 consecutive contests. This represents a 0% over rate with an average of 0 home runs per game against 0.5 lines, creating a -100% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Trevor Story's home runs with high confidence. His perfect 0-21 under record and complete power outage over 21 games provides exceptional value, with the market consistently overpricing his home run potential at 0.5 lines across all situations.
What's Trevor Story's average Home Runs all games?
Trevor Story averages exactly 0 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap between his actual production and the betting line represents one of the most significant edges in player prop betting currently available.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Trevor Story home run unders in any game situation, as his 0-21 record shows no situational variance. Target games where books offer 0.5 lines, which has been consistent. The trend appears systematic rather than matchup-dependent, making every game a potential value spot.