Trevor Story's hits props present a compelling under opportunity with just 33.3% overs across 21 games. His 0.95 average sits 0.12 hits below the typical 1.07 line, generating strong 27.3% under ROI. The data strongly favors betting Story to stay under his hits total.
Expert Analysis
Trevor Story's hitting struggles create one of the more reliable under trends in baseball props. His 0.95 hits per game average represents a significant gap below standard lines, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished offensive production. The 7-14 over/under record isn't just poor luck—it reflects fundamental changes in Story's approach and effectiveness at the plate. His current six-game under streak and history of extended cold stretches suggest this isn't random variance but a sustainable pattern. Story's power-over-contact profile makes him particularly vulnerable to hitting droughts, as he's more likely to strike out than find singles when struggling. The -36.4% over ROI demonstrates how consistently this trend has burned over bettors, while the 27.3% under return shows legitimate value for contrarian bettors. Without significant mechanical adjustments or a dramatic change in approach, Story's hit totals should continue falling short of inflated lines. The sample size of 21 games provides reasonable confidence, though bettors should monitor for any signs of adjustment from oddsmakers.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Trevor Story's hits props offer exceptional value with his 0.95 average sitting well below typical 1.07 lines. The 33.3% over rate and 27.3% under ROI create a clear mathematical edge that hasn't been properly priced by books. Target games where Story faces quality pitching or when lines exceed 1.0, as these amplify the existing value. The main risk is a sudden hot streak, but his contact issues make sustained improvement unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Hits prop record all games?
Trevor Story has gone over his hits prop in just 7 of 21 games (33.3% rate) while going under 14 times. His overall record shows a clear pattern favoring under bets across this substantial sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Hits all games?
Bet under on Trevor Story's hits props. His 0.95 average is significantly below typical 1.07 lines, creating consistent value with a 27.3% ROI on under bets versus -36.4% on overs.
What's Trevor Story's average Hits all games?
Trevor Story averages 0.95 hits per game, which is 0.12 hits below the standard 1.07 line. This gap represents the core value proposition for under bets on his hitting props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trevor Story under bets when he faces quality starting pitching or when lines exceed 1.0 hits. His current six-game under streak and contact issues make these spots particularly profitable.