Trevor Larnach's total bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, going over just 27.8% of the time with a brutal 10-26 record. His 1.47 average sits 0.8 bases below the typical 2.25 line, generating +37.9% ROI on unders. This is a clear fade-at-home situation.
Expert Analysis
Larnach's home struggles with total bases stem from a fundamental disconnect between his actual production and market expectations. The 1.47 average against a 2.25 line represents a massive 34.7% shortfall that has persisted across 36 games throughout 2024. This isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic underperformance that suggests either park factors, comfort level, or approach issues at Target Field. The 73% under rate is exceptionally high for a counting stat like total bases, indicating the market consistently overvalues his home production. Most concerning for over backers is the streak data showing his longest under stretch hit nine games, demonstrating this isn't just occasional cold spells but sustained periods of underperformance. The -47% ROI on overs is catastrophic, while the +37.9% under ROI shows consistent profitability. Without any positive split data or recent hot streaks to suggest regression, this appears to be a legitimate home/road split where Larnach simply doesn't produce the same power numbers at Target Field. The persistence across a full season sample suggests structural rather than random factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Larnach's 27.8% over rate at home represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props. The 0.8-base deficit to the line has held steady across 36 games, suggesting this is a true talent difference rather than variance. Target any line at 2.0 or higher, especially against right-handed pitching where power typically plays down further.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 9.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Larnach's Total Bases prop record home games?
Trevor Larnach has gone 10-26 on total bases overs in home games during 2024, hitting just 27.8% of his overs. He averages 1.47 total bases per home game against typical lines around 2.25, creating a significant 0.8-base deficit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Larnach Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Trevor Larnach's total bases at home games. His 27.8% over rate and +37.9% under ROI across 36 games makes this one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props this season.
What's Trevor Larnach's average Total Bases home games?
Trevor Larnach averages 1.47 total bases in home games, which sits 0.8 bases below the typical 2.25 line. This 34.7% shortfall has remained consistent across his 36 home appearances, making unders highly profitable.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Trevor Larnach total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher at Target Field. The edge is strongest against right-handed pitching and in day games where his power numbers historically decline further.