Trevor Larnach has been a disaster for hits bettors, going just 2-8 on overs in his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI. Averaging only 0.9 hits against a 1.6 line creates a massive 0.7-hit deficit that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear fade-the-over situation.
Expert Analysis
Larnach's hitting struggles represent more than just bad luck—this is a fundamental breakdown in offensive production. The 0.9 hits per game average against a 1.6 line suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his recent form or there are underlying mechanical issues affecting his contact rate. The 20% over rate across 10 games indicates consistent underperformance rather than isolated poor outings. What's particularly concerning is the longest over streak of just one game, meaning Larnach has never strung together consecutive multi-hit performances during this stretch. The current four-game under streak, following his longest under streak of four games, shows this isn't variance—it's a pattern. The +52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books appear slow to adjust lines downward despite overwhelming evidence. This type of sustained underperformance typically stems from either injury concerns, mechanical adjustments, or facing particularly tough pitching matchups. Without additional context on splits or recent form, the raw numbers paint a picture of a hitter in serious decline who consistently fails to reach even modest hit totals.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Larnach's 0.7-hit deficit per game against the line is massive in baseball terms, and the 80% under rate over 10 games shows clear market inefficiency. The ideal condition is any game where his hits line sits at 1.5 or higher, as he's averaging nearly a full hit below that threshold. The main risk is a potential dead-cat bounce performance, but even one good game won't erase this systematic underperformance trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Larnach's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Larnach has gone 2-8 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. This represents one of the worst over rates you'll find in baseball props, with under bets cashing 80% of the time during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Larnach Hits last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Larnach is averaging 0.9 hits against 1.6 lines, creating a massive deficit. The 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI on under bets shows clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit.
What's Trevor Larnach's average Hits last 10 games?
Larnach is averaging just 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below the typical 1.6 line he faces. This 0.7-hit differential represents a substantial gap that indicates serious offensive struggles rather than minor variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Larnach under bets when his hits line is 1.5 or higher, as he's consistently falling short of these modest totals. Avoid betting after any rare multi-hit game, as the trend shows he struggles to string together consecutive strong offensive performances.