Trea Turner's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 7 overs in 27 games (25.9% hit rate). His 1.56 average falls 0.6 bases short of the typical 2.17 line, generating a robust 41.4% ROI on under bets.
Expert Analysis
Turner's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental shift in his offensive profile since joining Philadelphia. The speedster who once relied on stolen bases and gap power has seen his extra-base production crater, averaging nearly a full base below market expectations. This isn't a small sample fluke - across 27 tracked games spanning over a year, Turner has consistently failed to reach inflated lines that price in his reputation rather than current reality. The 6-game under streak followed by just one over suggests books are slow to adjust to his diminished power output. Turner's contact-heavy approach generates plenty of singles, but the doubles and triples that drive total bases have become increasingly rare. His pull-heavy tendencies work against him in spacious NL East ballparks, turning would-be extra-base hits into routine outs. The persistence of this trend across different opponents, ballparks, and situations indicates a genuine skill regression rather than temporary variance. With books still pricing Turner based on past performance, the under represents exceptional value until his line adjusts downward to reflect his current singles-heavy profile.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Turner's 25.9% over rate and -0.6 differential versus the line create a sustainable edge, particularly when lines remain inflated above 2.0 total bases. The ideal spot comes against quality pitching in pitcher-friendly parks where his contact approach struggles to generate extra bases. Main risk is a hot streak inflating his power numbers short-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Trea Turner props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trea Turner's Total Bases prop record all games?
Turner's total bases prop record shows 7 overs and 20 unders in 27 tracked games, a poor 25.9% over rate. The under has generated a strong 41.4% ROI while overs have lost 50.5%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trea Turner Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Turner's total bases props. His 1.56 average falls well short of typical 2+ lines, and the 25.9% over rate with 41.4% under ROI creates clear value betting against inflated expectations.
What's Trea Turner's average Total Bases all games?
Turner averages 1.56 total bases per game across 27 tracked contests. This falls 0.6 bases short of his typical 2.17 line, representing a significant gap that creates consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Turner total bases unders when lines exceed 2.0, especially against quality pitching staffs. Avoid betting after his rare multi-hit games when books might temporarily lower the line closer to his actual production.