Trea Turner's home run prop at home presents one of the most reliable betting patterns in baseball, going 0-10 on overs with zero home runs across 10 games. The under delivers a 90.9% ROI while the over represents a complete loss. This is a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Trea Turner's complete absence of home runs in home games represents a fundamental shift in his offensive profile that bettors haven't fully recognized. The 0-for-10 over record isn't variance—it's systematic. Turner's speed-first approach prioritizes contact and base-stealing over power, making the 0.5 home run line consistently inflated at Citizens Bank Park. His swing mechanics favor line drives and ground balls that play well for average but rarely clear the fence. The ballpark dimensions at Philadelphia actually favor right-handed power more than Turner's left-handed stroke. Most significantly, Turner's role as a table-setter means he's focused on getting on base for the middle of the order rather than driving runs home. The consistent 0.5 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in reputation rather than recent performance. With Turner averaging exactly zero home runs per home game against a 0.5 line, the mathematical edge is stark. The -0.5 differential combined with the perfect under streak indicates this isn't a small sample fluke but rather a reflection of Turner's current approach and the home ballpark dynamics working against his power potential.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Turner's complete absence of home runs at home across 10 games represents a systematic edge rather than variance. The 0.5 line consistently overvalues his power potential in Philadelphia, where his contact-oriented approach and the ballpark dimensions create an ideal under environment. Risk minimal given the perfect track record and clear role definition.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trea Turner's Home Runs prop record home games?
Trea Turner is 0-10 on home run overs in home games, hitting exactly zero home runs across all 10 contests. The under has hit 100% of the time with a 90.9% ROI, while overs represent a complete loss.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trea Turner Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Turner's perfect 0-10 under record at home isn't variance—it reflects his speed-first approach and unfavorable ballpark matchup. The 0.5 line consistently overvalues his power potential in Philadelphia.
What's Trea Turner's average Home Runs home games?
Turner averages exactly 0.0 home runs per home game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This mathematical edge, combined with his contact-oriented approach, makes the under consistently profitable.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Turner home run unders consistently in home games, especially when the line stays at 0.5. His speed-first approach and Citizens Bank Park's dimensions create systematic value regardless of opponent or recent form.