Trea Turner's home run props present one of the strongest under trends in baseball, hitting just 3.8% of overs across 26 games with a catastrophic -92.7% ROI on the over side. Turner has managed only one home run in 26 tracked games against a consistent 0.5 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Turner's home run drought reflects his fundamental profile as a contact-over-power hitter who prioritizes stolen bases and batting average over launch angle optimization. His 0.04 home runs per game average sits dramatically below even the modest 0.5 line, suggesting books are still pricing him based on outdated power expectations or name recognition rather than current production. The 25-game under streak isn't fluky—it's systematic. Turner's swing mechanics favor line drives and grounders that fuel his speed game, not the elevated contact that generates home runs. His approach hasn't changed, and neither has his ballpark context in Philadelphia, where Citizens Bank Park plays relatively neutral for power. The concerning element for over bettors is Turner's age and declining exit velocity trends, which make power regression unlikely. At 31, players typically don't suddenly develop home run power they've never consistently shown. The sample size of 26 games provides robust confidence in this pattern, especially given Turner's consistent role and health throughout this period. Books appear slow to adjust the line despite overwhelming evidence, creating a sustainable edge for under backers who recognize Turner's true offensive identity.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Turner's 96.2% under rate over 26 games reflects his genuine offensive profile, not random variance. The 0.46-run gap between his production and the 0.5 line creates massive value on unders, particularly when books maintain this generous number. Main risk is a random hot streak, but Turner's contact-first approach makes sustained power output unlikely at this stage of his career.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trea Turner's Home Runs prop record all games?
Turner's home run prop record shows 1-25-0 over/under across 26 games, hitting just 3.8% of overs. He's averaging 0.04 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.46 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trea Turner Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Turner's home runs with high confidence. His 96.2% under rate over 26 games and -0.46 production gap versus the line create exceptional value. His contact-first approach makes consistent power output extremely unlikely at this career stage.
What's Trea Turner's average Home Runs all games?
Turner averages 0.04 home runs per game, dramatically below the typical 0.5 line. This 0.46-run differential represents one of the largest gaps between player production and betting lines, creating substantial under value for informed bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Turner home run unders consistently when the line stays at 0.5, regardless of matchup. His contact-first profile and age-related power decline make this sustainable long-term. Avoid only if books drop the line to 0.5 under or lower.