Trea Turner's hits props show a clear underdog edge, going under in 55.6% of games (15-12 record) with a +6.1% ROI on unders versus -15.2% on overs. Despite averaging 1.26 hits against a 1.09 line, the under provides consistent value. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The counterintuitive nature of Turner's hits props creates a profitable betting opportunity. While Turner averages 1.26 hits per game, exceeding the typical 1.09 line by 0.17 hits, the under has delivered superior returns across 27 games. This suggests the market consistently overvalues Turner's hit production, likely influenced by his reputation as a contact hitter and leadoff presence. The 44.4% over rate indicates books are pricing Turner's ceiling rather than his median performance, creating systematic value on unders. Turner's hit production appears more volatile than his average suggests, with the longest under streak reaching three games compared to just two for overs. This volatility, combined with the sample size spanning over a full season, indicates a persistent market inefficiency rather than random variance. The negative ROI on overs (-15.2%) is particularly telling, as it suggests consistent overpricing of Turner's upside. Baseball's inherent randomness in hit production, even for elite contact hitters like Turner, means regression toward league-average performance is inevitable. The data points to a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Turner's actual hit distribution patterns, creating ongoing value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 55.6% under rate combined with positive ROI (+6.1%) creates a sustainable edge despite Turner's above-average hit production. The market appears to systematically overprice Turner's ceiling performance, making unders the preferred play. Risk lies in Turner's genuine contact ability and potential for hot streaks, but the data supports consistent under value across various game situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trea Turner's Hits prop record all games?
Turner's hits props have gone under in 15 of 27 games (55.6%) with 12 overs. This 15-12-0 under record spans from May 2023 through September 2024, showing consistent under performance despite his strong hitting reputation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trea Turner Hits all games?
Bet under on Turner's hits props. The under has hit 55.6% of the time with a +6.1% ROI, while overs lose money at -15.2%. The market consistently overprices Turner's hit ceiling, creating systematic value on unders.
What's Trea Turner's average Hits all games?
Turner averages 1.26 hits per game against a typical line of 1.09, creating a +0.17 differential. However, this above-average production hasn't translated to profitable overs, with unders still providing better betting value despite the higher average.
How reliable is this trend?
Any game situation offers under value given Turner's consistent 55.6% under rate. Focus on games where the line sits at 1.5 hits, as Turner's volatility makes the under particularly attractive when books price his ceiling performance.