Travis d'Arnaud's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going just 2-8 over his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. The veteran catcher is averaging 2.0 total bases against a 2.6 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of d'Arnaud's recent offensive struggles, but the underlying factors suggest this isn't just random variance. At 35 years old, d'Arnaud is showing signs of age-related decline in his power output, particularly evident in his failure to reach multi-base hits consistently. The 0.6 differential between his actual performance and the betting line indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form. His current six-game under streak represents the longest in this sample, suggesting a sustained downturn rather than isolated cold games. The 20% over rate is remarkably low for any hitter over a 10-game span, indicating either legitimate skill regression or an extended slump that books are slow to recognize. What's particularly telling is the consistency of the underperformance - this isn't a case of a few massive under games skewing the average, but rather steady production below expectations. For a catcher in the back half of his career, this type of power fade often becomes the new normal rather than a temporary blip. The lack of any meaningful hot streak (longest over streak of just one game) reinforces that d'Arnaud is operating at a diminished offensive capacity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.6 average differential creates legitimate value, especially with books potentially slow to adjust lines for aging catchers. Target games where d'Arnaud faces quality pitching or in day games following night games, as catchers often struggle with the quick turnaround. The main risk is regression to career norms, but at 35, this decline may represent his new baseline rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Travis d'Arnaud's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Travis d'Arnaud has gone 2-8 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. This represents one of the worst over rates for any regular player over a 10-game span, creating significant under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Travis d'Arnaud Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on d'Arnaud's total bases props. His 2.0 average against typical 2.6 lines creates a 0.6 edge, while his current six-game under streak suggests sustained offensive decline rather than temporary variance at age 35.
What's Travis d'Arnaud's average Total Bases last 10 games?
d'Arnaud is averaging 2.0 total bases over his last 10 games, falling 0.6 short of the typical 2.6 line. This consistent underperformance has generated a +52.7% ROI for under bettors during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target d'Arnaud total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games following night games. Catchers often struggle with quick turnarounds, and his age-related decline is most pronounced against better competition.