Tommy Edman has gone under his home run prop in 80% of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 2-8-0 record with a -0.3 differential from his typical 0.5 line. This represents a strong under trend with exceptional value at +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Tommy Edman's power drought over his last 10 games reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive profile since joining the Dodgers. Averaging just 0.2 home runs against a standard 0.5 line, Edman has managed only two long balls across this stretch while consistently falling short of market expectations. The 80% under rate isn't merely bad luck—it aligns with Edman's career-long tendency toward contact over power, particularly evident in high-leverage situations where he prioritizes putting the ball in play. His current three-game under streak represents his longest dry spell in this sample, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his role as a table-setter rather than a run producer. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this inefficiency, while the robust +52.7% under return demonstrates consistent value for contrarian bettors. Most concerning for over backers is Edman's inability to string together consecutive home run games, managing just one isolated over in his longest streak. This pattern suggests a player operating within clearly defined power limitations rather than experiencing temporary variance. The persistence of this trend through different matchups and game situations indicates structural factors rather than small-sample noise.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Tommy Edman's 20% over rate and -0.3 differential from the standard line represent a market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The combination of his contact-first approach and consistent underperformance against power expectations creates exceptional value on unders. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or facing particularly weak pitching, but the trend's consistency across varied conditions makes this a premium fade opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tommy Edman's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Tommy Edman has gone 2-8-0 on his home run props over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He's averaged 0.2 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.3 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tommy Edman Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Tommy Edman's home run props. His 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI on unders over the last 10 games represent exceptional value. The market hasn't adjusted to his contact-first role, making unders a high-confidence play.
What's Tommy Edman's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Tommy Edman is averaging 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games, well below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.3 differential represents consistent value for under bettors, as he's managed just two home runs across this entire stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tommy Edman home run unders when he faces quality pitching or in high-leverage spots where his contact approach dominates. Avoid when he's facing weak bullpens or in obvious blowout spots where he might get aggressive swings in garbage time.