Tommy Edman's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with just 20.0% overs hitting across 10 games. His 0.2 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.3 differential that has generated +52.7% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Edman's home run props.
Expert Analysis
Tommy Edman's power profile creates a textbook case for systematic under betting on his home run props. His 0.2 home run average reveals a player whose offensive value comes from contact and speed rather than raw power, yet sportsbooks consistently set his line at 0.5 homers. This disconnect has produced an 80% under rate that reflects fundamental skills rather than temporary slump. Edman's approach at the plate prioritizes putting the ball in play over launch angle optimization, making him more likely to produce singles and doubles than clear the fence. The three-game under streak represents normal variance for a player averaging one homer every five games. His transition to the Dodgers hasn't altered his swing mechanics or approach, suggesting this trend reflects sustainable skills rather than park factors or lineup position. The -61.8% ROI on overs indicates sharp money recognizes this edge, while recreational bettors likely overvalue his high-profile team context. Without significant changes to his swing plane or approach, Edman's power output should remain consistent with his career patterns, making unders the superior long-term play.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Edman's 0.2 average creates substantial value against the standard 0.5 line, supported by his contact-oriented approach that prioritizes getting on base over power production. The 80% under rate reflects his true skill set rather than temporary variance. Target his under props consistently, particularly when the line sits at 0.5 or higher. Main risk involves potential lineup changes that put him in more favorable RBI spots, but his swing mechanics suggest limited power upside regardless of situation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tommy Edman's Home Runs prop record all games?
Tommy Edman's home runs prop record stands at 2-8-0 over/under across 10 games, hitting just 20.0% overs. He's averaging 0.2 home runs per game against typical lines of 0.5, creating a significant -0.3 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tommy Edman Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Tommy Edman's home runs props with high confidence. His 0.2 average sits well below standard 0.5 lines, producing 80% under results and +52.7% ROI. His contact-oriented approach makes consistent power production unlikely.
What's Tommy Edman's average Home Runs all games?
Tommy Edman averages 0.2 home runs per game, sitting 0.3 below the typical 0.5 line. This substantial gap reflects his contact-first approach and creates natural value for under bettors targeting his power props consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Tommy Edman home run unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, which occurs regularly. His contact-oriented profile creates consistent value regardless of matchup, though avoid when facing extreme flyball pitchers in hitter-friendly parks.