Tommy Edman's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 20.0% overs over his last 10 games, going 2-8-0 against the line. His 0.8 average sits 0.7 hits below the standard 1.5 line, generating +52.7% ROI on unders. This is a clear lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Tommy Edman's recent hitting struggles create a stark contrast to typical prop expectations, with his 0.8 hits per game falling significantly short of the 1.5 line books continue to post. The 20.0% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it reflects a fundamental shift in his offensive production during this stretch. Most telling is the six-game under streak within this sample, suggesting sustained difficulty making consistent contact or finding gaps. The -0.7 differential between his average and the line represents substantial value, particularly when books haven't adjusted expectations to match his current form. While sample size concerns always exist with 10-game windows, the consistency of the underperformance—with only two multi-hit games in the entire stretch—indicates this isn't random variance. The +52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow adjustment to Edman's current hitting profile. Without additional context on matchups or underlying metrics, the raw production tells a clear story of a hitter struggling to reach even modest expectations, making the under the logical play until his form shifts or books properly adjust the line downward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Edman's 0.8 hits per game over 10 contests creates clear value against the 1.5 line, especially with books slow to adjust to his current form. The six-game under streak within this sample demonstrates sustained struggles rather than random variance. Best conditions are when the line remains at 1.5 or higher, though regression risk exists if his contact quality improves suddenly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tommy Edman's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Tommy Edman went 2-8-0 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20.0% of the time. He averaged 0.8 hits per game against the typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.7 differential that heavily favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tommy Edman Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Tommy Edman's hits prop. His 0.8 average sits well below the 1.5 line, generating +52.7% ROI for under bettors. The six-game under streak within this sample shows sustained struggles, not temporary variance.
What's Tommy Edman's average Hits last 10 games?
Tommy Edman averaged 0.8 hits per game over his last 10 contests, falling 0.7 hits short of the standard 1.5 line. This significant gap between his production and market expectations created consistent value for under bettors throughout the stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Tommy Edman's hits under when the line stays at 1.5 or higher, particularly during his current form slump. Avoid if books adjust the line below 1.0 or if underlying contact metrics show improvement despite recent results.